SCR Altach 1-4 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SCR Altach at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Wolfsberger AC travel to Cashpoint-Arena to take on SCR Altach in Bundesliga (Relegation Group - 30). The game is scheduled for Monday 4 May 2026 at 18:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, SCR Altach have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, SCR Altach have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SCR Altach are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Wolfsberger AC — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Wolfsberger AC away from home: 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
SCR Altach carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of SCR Altach's games and 60% of Wolfsberger AC's (from SCR Altach's last 10 home games and Wolfsberger AC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, SCR Altach have won 3, Wolfsberger AC 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Mar 2026, ended SCR Altach 1–1 Wolfsberger AC — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 48% versus Wolfsberger AC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 41% | Wolfsberger AC 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SCR Altach surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Wolfsberger AC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.64 xG and Wolfsberger AC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 1.009 / defence 0.912 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.947 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Wolfsberger AC's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SCR Altach's projected output up. Data: built from SCR Altach's last 44 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 44.
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 52% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 22%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 1.93 | Draw 3.85 | Wolfsberger AC 4.50. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SCR Altach 60% (last 10 home games) | Wolfsberger AC 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 30 | Venue: Cashpoint-Arena • Kick-off: Monday 4 May 2026 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 52% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG SCR Altach 1.64 / Wolfsberger AC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 1.009 / def 0.912 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.947 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Wolfsberger AC xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC FAQs
What time does SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Monday 4 May 2026 at Cashpoint-Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
SCR Altach 1 - 4 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Cashpoint-Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Group - 30) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 52% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 1.01x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SCR Altach's last 44 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
52%
1.93
26%
3.85
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.62
0.99
Wolfsberger AC xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
4%
23.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for SCR Altach and 0.99 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 61 games, going 14W 22D 25L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Wolfsberger AC sit at 1.43 PPG from 61 outings (24W 15D 22L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SCR Altach on 1.05 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 9W 14D 7L across their last 30 home games, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolfsberger AC have taken 1.30 points per game from their last 30 away games (11W 6D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.54 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 61%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Current Season
Wolfsberger AC
Current Season
SCR Altach (Home) vs Wolfsberger AC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SCR Altach
Current Season
Wolfsberger AC
Current Season
❓ SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC Form FAQs
What form are SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 14W 22D 25L in their last 61 games (1.05 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 24W 15D 22L in their last 61 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
SCR Altach's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.37 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from March 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 May 2026, when Wolfsberger AC won SCR Altach 1-4 Wolfsberger AC.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SCR Altach
3
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SCR Altach have won 4, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: SCR Altach 3-0 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 57%, Wolfsberger AC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (SCR Altach) and 60% (Wolfsberger AC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of SCR Altach's games and 60% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of SCR Altach's recent games and 60% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 87% of Wolfsberger AC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wolfsberger AC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat SCR Altach 1-4 at Cashpoint-Arena, Relegation Group - 30, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.64 xG and Wolfsberger AC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 0.99 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 52% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 22%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Wolfsberger AC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 41%, Wolfsberger AC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 1.05 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.