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Poisson model rates Grazer AK at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

WSG Wattens make the trip to Merkur-Arena to face Grazer AK in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Grazer AK have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Grazer AK have posted 5W 3D 2L at Merkur-Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Grazer AK are significantly better at Merkur-Arena than their overall form suggests.

WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

WSG Wattens's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Grazer AK, 1.50 for WSG Wattens — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grazer AK lead 2W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 5–1 with Grazer AK winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Grazer AK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 62% versus WSG Wattens 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 54% | WSG Wattens 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.43 xG and WSG Wattens 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 1.043 / defence 1.039 | WSG Wattens attack 1.060 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Grazer AK games / 44 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Grazer AK 40% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 33%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | WSG Wattens 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Grazer AK are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grazer AK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Grazer AK 80% | WSG Wattens 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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