Grazer AK 2-2 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Grazer AK (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Grazer AK face SCR Altach.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur-Arena plays host to Grazer AK versus SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Grazer AK (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Merkur-Arena, Grazer AK have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Grazer AK are significantly better at Merkur-Arena than their overall form suggests.
SCR Altach have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, SCR Altach have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Grazer AK. A 0.60 PPG lead over SCR Altach (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grazer AK lead 3W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with SCR Altach winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Grazer AK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 61% versus SCR Altach 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 55% | SCR Altach 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.41 xG and SCR Altach 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 1.041 / defence 1.038 | SCR Altach attack 0.828 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Grazer AK games / 44 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 46% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 26%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | SCR Altach 3.85. Grazer AK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grazer AK are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grazer AK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Grazer AK 70% | SCR Altach 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 31 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 46% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Grazer AK 1.41 / SCR Altach 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 1.041 / def 1.038 | SCR Altach attack 0.828 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Grazer AK (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
0.99
SCR Altach xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs SCR Altach kick off?
Grazer AK vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs SCR Altach?
Grazer AK 2 - 2 SCR Altach.
Where is Grazer AK vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs SCR Altach part of?
Grazer AK vs SCR Altach is a Relegation Group - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 46% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Grazer AK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Grazer AK and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and SCR Altach?
Record (7 meetings): Grazer AK 3W | Draws 3 | SCR Altach 1W.
What form are Grazer AK and SCR Altach in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Grazer AK's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against SCR Altach's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.83x) against Grazer AK's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grazer AK Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.53
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.39
0.99
SCR Altach xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
6%
15.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Grazer AK and 0.99 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Grazer AK's recent record stands at 13W 22D 27L from 62 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 14W 22D 26L across 62 games — 1.03 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Grazer AK against 1.03 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Grazer AK have managed 9W 12D 10L from 31 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 5W 8D 18L across 31 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grazer AK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grazer AK are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.98 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Current Season
SCR Altach
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 13W 22D 27L in their last 62 games (0.98 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 14W 22D 26L in their last 62 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or SCR Altach away?
Grazer AK's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 1.26 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grazer AK have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Grazer AK
4
Draws
1
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and SCR Altach?
From 8 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 3, SCR Altach have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Grazer AK 2-2 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and SCR Altach?
Grazer AK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
SCR Altach see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grazer AK 64%, SCR Altach 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Grazer AK) and 48% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Grazer AK's recent matches and 39% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grazer AK vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Grazer AK's recent games and 48% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grazer AK and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grazer AK and SCR Altach share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grazer AK and SCR Altach finished level at 2-2 at Merkur-Arena, Relegation Group - 31, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.41 xG and SCR Altach 0.99 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SCR Altach outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 1.04 / defence 1.04 against SCR Altach attack 0.83 / defence 1.00, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 46% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 26%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 55%, SCR Altach 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
SCR Altach's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grazer AK 0.98 PPG, SCR Altach 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.