🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Grazer AK (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Grazer AK face SCR Altach.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Merkur-Arena plays host to Grazer AK versus SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Grazer AK (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Merkur-Arena, Grazer AK have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Grazer AK are significantly better at Merkur-Arena than their overall form suggests.

SCR Altach have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, SCR Altach have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Grazer AK. A 0.60 PPG lead over SCR Altach (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grazer AK lead 3W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with SCR Altach winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Grazer AK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 61% versus SCR Altach 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 55% | SCR Altach 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.41 xG and SCR Altach 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 1.041 / defence 1.038 | SCR Altach attack 0.828 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Grazer AK games / 44 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Grazer AK 46% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 26%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | SCR Altach 3.85. Grazer AK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Grazer AK are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grazer AK if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Grazer AK 70% | SCR Altach 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights