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Poisson rates SCR Altach at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Group - 30 sees Wolfsberger AC travel to Cashpoint-Arena to take on SCR Altach. The game is scheduled for Monday 4 May 2026, 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Cashpoint-Arena, SCR Altach have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SCR Altach are significantly better at Cashpoint-Arena than their overall form suggests.

Wolfsberger AC — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Wolfsberger AC away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

SCR Altach carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SCR Altach register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Wolfsberger AC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for SCR Altach, 2 for Wolfsberger AC and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 9 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 48% versus Wolfsberger AC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 41% | Wolfsberger AC 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.64 xG and Wolfsberger AC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 1.009 / defence 0.912 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.947 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Wolfsberger AC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing SCR Altach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 SCR Altach games / 44 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 52% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 22%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Wolfsberger AC 4.55. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 60% | Wolfsberger AC 60% BTTS from recent games.

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