SCR Altach 1-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 51%, yet the head-to-head data favours Rapid Vienna — this SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

SCR Altach host Rapid Vienna at Cashpoint-Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 21). Kick-off is Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Guide

SCR Altach — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, SCR Altach have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Rapid Vienna stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Rapid Vienna have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — SCR Altach at 1.50 PPG versus Rapid Vienna's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of SCR Altach's games and 60% of Rapid Vienna's (from SCR Altach's last 10 home games and Rapid Vienna's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

Rapid Vienna have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 0 for SCR Altach.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2025, ended SCR Altach 0–0 Rapid Vienna — a draw.

Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 7 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

In-Play Profile

SCR Altach in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 46% versus Rapid Vienna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 40% | Rapid Vienna 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.43 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 1.042 / defence 0.857 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.847 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.169. Data: built from SCR Altach's last 42 games and Rapid Vienna's last 42.

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 51% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 22%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 1.97 | Draw 3.71 | Rapid Vienna 4.50. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SCR Altach at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: SCR Altach 60% (last 10 home games) | Rapid Vienna 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights