Ried 1-1 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lask Linz at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ried vs Lask Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lask Linz make the trip to Innviertel Arena to face Ried in Bundesliga (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Ried have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Ried's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 3L across their last 9 home games (1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 9 home games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lask Linz's record over their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Lask Linz's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lask Linz are 0.80 PPG clear of Ried over their recent games (2.60 vs 1.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Ried edge it 3 wins to 1, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Ried 3–1 Lask Linz — a Ried win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Ried goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 18 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lask Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 18 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 44% versus Lask Linz 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 50% | Lask Linz 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.17 xG and Lask Linz 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.918 / defence 0.961 | Lask Linz attack 1.069 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.278. Data: built from Ried's last 18 games and Lask Linz's last 40.
Result probabilities: Ried 33% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 40%. Fair-value odds: Ried 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Lask Linz 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Ried 33% (last 9 home games) | Lask Linz 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 19 | Venue: Innviertel Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 33% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Ried 1.17 / Lask Linz 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.918 / def 0.961 | Lask Linz attack 1.069 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Lask Linz xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ried vs Lask Linz FAQs
What time does Ried vs Lask Linz kick off?
Ried vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Innviertel Arena.
What was the final score in Ried vs Lask Linz?
Ried 1 - 1 Lask Linz.
Where is Ried vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Innviertel Arena.
What competition is Ried vs Lask Linz part of?
Ried vs Lask Linz is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 19) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 33% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ried and Lask Linz will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Ried vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ried's attack rating (0.92) and Lask Linz's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lask Linz's attack (1.07x) against Ried's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from Ried's last 18 games and Lask Linz's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
33%
3.03
27%
3.70
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Ried xG
Total xG
2.48
1.31
Lask Linz xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
9%
11.26
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ried vs Lask Linz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ried and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Ried and 1.31 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Ried have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 8W 2D 8L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Lask Linz's form line: 10W 2D 6L from 18 games, 1.78 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Ried against 1.78 for Lask Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ried have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 9 home games (4W 2D 3L).
On the road, Lask Linz have gone 4W 1D 4L from their last 9 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ried are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.39 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Lask Linz in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
Ried (Home) vs Lask Linz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ried
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Ried vs Lask Linz Form FAQs
What form are Ried and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 8W 2D 8L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 10W 2D 6L in their last 18 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or Lask Linz away?
Ried's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.56 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Ried or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ried have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Lask Linz have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won Lask Linz 4-1 Ried on 14 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ried have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ried
4
Draws
3
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Ried vs Lask Linz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Lask Linz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ried have won 3, Lask Linz have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ried and Lask Linz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Ried 2-4 Lask Linz.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 33%, Lask Linz 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ried) and 56% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: Ried keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Ried have failed to score in 33% of games; Lask Linz in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ried vs Lask Linz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ried and Lask Linz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Ried's recent matches and 44% of Lask Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ried and Lask Linz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ried's recent games and 56% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ried and Lask Linz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Ried's recent matches and 78% of Lask Linz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ried and Lask Linz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ried and Lask Linz finished level at 1-1 at Innviertel Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.17 xG and Lask Linz 1.31 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Lask Linz attack 1.07 / defence 0.95, drawn from 18/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 33% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 40%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 50%, Lask Linz 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Lask Linz's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.44 PPG, Lask Linz 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.