Ried 0-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 40% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ried vs Austria Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ried host Austria Vienna at Innviertel Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Ried — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ried's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Austria Vienna have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Austria Vienna's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ried at 1.40 PPG versus Austria Vienna's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Austria Vienna have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for Ried.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Ried 2–3 Austria Vienna — a Austria Vienna win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Austria Vienna have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Ried in-play and half-time data (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 52% versus Austria Vienna 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 48% | Austria Vienna 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.23 xG and Austria Vienna 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.899 / defence 0.981 | Austria Vienna attack 1.194 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.202. Data: built from Ried's last 21 games and Austria Vienna's last 43.
Result probabilities: Ried 32% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 40%. Fair-value odds: Ried 3.12 | Draw 3.63 | Austria Vienna 2.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Austria Vienna 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ried 40% (last 10 home games) | Austria Vienna 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: Innviertel Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 32% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Ried 1.23 / Austria Vienna 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.899 / def 0.981 | Austria Vienna attack 1.194 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Austria Vienna xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ried vs Austria Vienna FAQs
What time does Ried vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Ried vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Innviertel Arena.
What was the final score in Ried vs Austria Vienna?
Ried 0 - 2 Austria Vienna.
Where is Ried vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Innviertel Arena.
What competition is Ried vs Austria Vienna part of?
Ried vs Austria Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 32% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ried and Austria Vienna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ried vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ried's attack at 0.90x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus Ried's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ried's last 21 games and Austria Vienna's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
32%
3.12
28%
3.63
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Ried xG
Total xG
2.63
1.41
Austria Vienna xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
8%
12.77
12%
8.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ried vs Austria Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ried and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Ried and 1.41 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Ried have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 8W 4D 9L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Austria Vienna's form line: 10W 3D 8L from 21 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ried on 1.33 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ried have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 10 home games (4W 3D 3L).
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ried are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.52 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna in 62%.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
Ried (Home) vs Austria Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ried
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Ried vs Austria Vienna Form FAQs
What form are Ried and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 8W 4D 9L in their last 21 games (1.33 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 10W 3D 8L in their last 21 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.50 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Oct 2021, when Austria Vienna won Austria Vienna 4-1 Ried.
Ried's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Ried
0
Draws
5
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Ried vs Austria Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Austria Vienna?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Ried have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ried and Austria Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Ried 3-2 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Ried and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 40%, Austria Vienna 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Ried and 80% for Austria Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ried keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ried have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ried vs Austria Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ried and Austria Vienna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Ried's games and 80% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ried and Austria Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Ried's matches and 80% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Ried and Austria Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Ried's recent matches and 100% of Austria Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ried.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Ried 0-2 at Innviertel Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.23 xG and Austria Vienna 1.41 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ried fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.90 / defence 0.98 against Austria Vienna attack 1.19 / defence 1.03, drawn from 21/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 32% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 40%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 48%, Austria Vienna 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.33 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.