Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Red Bull Salzburg at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Red Bull Salzburg face Wolfsberger AC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Red Bull Salzburg and Wolfsberger AC meet at Red Bull Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 December 2023 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
Red Bull Salzburg's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Red Bull Salzburg at home: 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Red Bull Salzburg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Wolfsberger AC have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Wolfsberger AC away from home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Red Bull Salzburg, 0 for Wolfsberger AC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Red Bull Salzburg 2–1 Wolfsberger AC — a Red Bull Salzburg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Red Bull Salzburg half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Wolfsberger AC half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 45% versus Wolfsberger AC 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 51% | Wolfsberger AC 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.81 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.189 / defence 0.816 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.031 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.251. Data: built from Red Bull Salzburg's last 37 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 37.
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 55% | Draw 23% | Wolfsberger AC 22%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 1.81 | Draw 4.35 | Wolfsberger AC 4.58. The model has a clear lean to Red Bull Salzburg (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Red Bull Salzburg are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 home games and Wolfsberger AC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Red Bull Salzburg 40% (last 10 home games) | Wolfsberger AC 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 16 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 55% | Draw 23% | Wolfsberger AC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.81 / Wolfsberger AC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.189 / def 0.816 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.031 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Wolfsberger AC xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs Wolfsberger AC FAQs
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Red Bull Salzburg 1 - 0 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Wolfsberger AC is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 16) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 55% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and Wolfsberger AC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Red Bull Salzburg's attack rating (1.19) and Wolfsberger AC's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (1.03x) against Red Bull Salzburg's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Red Bull Salzburg's last 37 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.35
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.86
1.05
Wolfsberger AC xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
4%
27.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.05 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Red Bull Salzburg's recent record stands at 33W 11D 3L from 47 games, a 2.34 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Wolfsberger AC, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 19L across 47 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Red Bull Salzburg by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wolfsberger AC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Red Bull Salzburg have managed 15W 6D 2L from their last 23 home games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wolfsberger AC's away record stands at 11W 6D 6L across their last 23 away games, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.57 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 66%.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg (Home) vs Wolfsberger AC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs Wolfsberger AC Form FAQs
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 33W 11D 3L in their last 47 games (2.34 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 18W 10D 19L in their last 47 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.22 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or Wolfsberger AC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Wolfsberger AC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Red Bull Salzburg and Wolfsberger AC, the earliest from November 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Red Bull Salzburg
3
Draws
2
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs Wolfsberger AC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Wolfsberger AC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Red Bull Salzburg have won 5, Wolfsberger AC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Wolfsberger AC 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and Wolfsberger AC?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Red Bull Salzburg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 39%, Wolfsberger AC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 70% (Wolfsberger AC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Wolfsberger AC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs Wolfsberger AC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Red Bull Salzburg and Wolfsberger AC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 61% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Red Bull Salzburg and Wolfsberger AC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Red Bull Salzburg's matches and 70% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and Wolfsberger AC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 83% of Wolfsberger AC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Red Bull Salzburg edge out Wolfsberger AC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Wolfsberger AC 1-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.81 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Red Bull Salzburg fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.19 / defence 0.82 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.03 / defence 1.17, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 55% | Draw 23% | Wolfsberger AC 22%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 51%, Wolfsberger AC 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.36. That form edge translated into the three points. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.