Austria Vienna 0-0 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 16 as Austria Vienna welcome Lask Linz to Generali Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 December 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's home record at Generali Arena: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Generali Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lask Linz stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Lask Linz's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Austria Vienna's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Austria Vienna have won 0, Lask Linz 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Lask Linz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Austria Vienna in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 55% versus Lask Linz 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 64% | Lask Linz 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.33 xG and Lask Linz 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 0.938 / defence 0.687 | Lask Linz attack 1.051 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.227. Austria Vienna's defence rating of 0.687 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Austria Vienna games / 37 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 47% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 25%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Lask Linz 4.00. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lask Linz (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 30% | Lask Linz 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 47% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Austria Vienna 1.33 / Lask Linz 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 0.938 / def 0.687 | Lask Linz attack 1.051 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Lask Linz xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Austria Vienna 0 - 0 Lask Linz.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz part of?
Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 47% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Austria Vienna and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Lask Linz?
Record (3 meetings): Austria Vienna 0W | Draws 1 | Lask Linz 2W.
What form are Austria Vienna and Lask Linz in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Lask Linz (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Lask Linz's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.56
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.22
0.89
Lask Linz xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
7%
15.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.89 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 17W 14D 16L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz's form line: 22W 16D 9L from 47 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Vienna on 1.38 PPG, Lask Linz on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 1.61 PPG from 23 outings (10W 7D 6L).
On the road, Lask Linz have gone 7W 11D 5L from 23 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.60 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 17W 14D 16L in their last 47 games (1.38 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 22W 16D 9L in their last 47 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Lask Linz away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.61 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Austria Vienna and Lask Linz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lask Linz have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Apr 2026, when Lask Linz won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Austria Vienna
3
Draws
5
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 2, Lask Linz have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Austria Vienna 0-3 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 48%, Lask Linz 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Austria Vienna) and 35% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Austria Vienna's games and 65% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 35% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Austria Vienna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna and Lask Linz finished level at 0-0 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.33 xG and Lask Linz 0.89 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Austria Vienna fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Lask Linz landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 0.94 / defence 0.69 against Lask Linz attack 1.05 / defence 1.10, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 47% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 25%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 64%, Lask Linz 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Lask Linz's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.38 PPG, Lask Linz 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.