TSV Hartberg 2-0 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as TSV Hartberg face Wolfsberger AC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
TSV Hartberg welcome Wolfsberger AC to PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga (matchday 17). Kick-off is Sunday 10 December 2023 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
TSV Hartberg's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wolfsberger AC stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Wolfsberger AC's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — TSV Hartberg at 1.80 PPG versus Wolfsberger AC's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for TSV Hartberg, 1 for Wolfsberger AC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended TSV Hartberg 3–0 Wolfsberger AC — a TSV Hartberg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 52% versus Wolfsberger AC 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (TSV Hartberg 62% | Wolfsberger AC 71%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: TSV Hartberg surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Wolfsberger AC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.55 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.097 / defence 1.090 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.972 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.198. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 38 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 38.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 44% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 31%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.27 | Draw 4.02 | Wolfsberger AC 3.21. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (TSV Hartberg's last 10 home games and Wolfsberger AC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 40% (last 10 home games) | Wolfsberger AC 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 17 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 44% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG TSV Hartberg 1.55 / Wolfsberger AC 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.097 / def 1.090 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.972 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Wolfsberger AC xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC FAQs
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 0 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 17) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 44% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 1.10x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from TSV Hartberg's last 38 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
44%
2.27
25%
4.02
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.82
1.27
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
7%
15.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.27 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 16W 11D 21L from 48 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Wolfsberger AC, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 20L across 48 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.23 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 9W 5D 10L from their last 24 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wolfsberger AC's away record stands at 11W 6D 7L across their last 24 away games, a 1.62 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.54 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 65%.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
TSV Hartberg (Home) vs Wolfsberger AC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC Form FAQs
What form are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 16W 11D 21L in their last 48 games (1.23 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 18W 10D 20L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.33 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: TSV Hartberg have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Sep 2023, when TSV Hartberg won Wolfsberger AC 0-3 TSV Hartberg.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
2
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, TSV Hartberg have won 6, Wolfsberger AC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: TSV Hartberg 1-0 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 54%, Wolfsberger AC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for TSV Hartberg and 67% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of TSV Hartberg's games and 58% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 67% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 83% of Wolfsberger AC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Wolfsberger AC 2-0 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.55 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.27 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.10 / defence 1.09 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 44% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 31%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 62%, Wolfsberger AC 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.23 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.