Austria Klagenfurt 1-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Klagenfurt host TSV Hartberg at 28 Black Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 16). Kick-off is Monday 4 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Austria Klagenfurt — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Austria Klagenfurt's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, TSV Hartberg stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
TSV Hartberg away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. TSV Hartberg are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Austria Klagenfurt hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for TSV Hartberg and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Austria Klagenfurt 3–0 TSV Hartberg — a Austria Klagenfurt win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Austria Klagenfurt and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Austria Klagenfurt in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Klagenfurt 57% versus TSV Hartberg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 66% | TSV Hartberg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.15 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.909 / defence 1.171 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.309 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.212. TSV Hartberg have an above-average attack rating of 1.309, which lifts their away xG to 1.86. Data: built from Austria Klagenfurt's last 37 games and TSV Hartberg's last 37.
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 23% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 54%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 4.26 | Draw 4.41 | TSV Hartberg 1.86. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Austria Klagenfurt's last 10 home games and TSV Hartberg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Austria Klagenfurt 70% (last 10 home games) | TSV Hartberg 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 16 | Venue: 28 Black Arena • Kick-off: Monday 4 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 23% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.15 / TSV Hartberg 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.909 / def 1.171 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.309 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.86
TSV Hartberg xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg FAQs
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Monday 4 December 2023 at 28 Black Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Austria Klagenfurt 1 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at 28 Black Arena.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 16) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 23% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Klagenfurt's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Klagenfurt's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Austria Klagenfurt's last 37 games and TSV Hartberg's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
23%
4.26
23%
4.41
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
3.01
1.86
TSV Hartberg xG
4.26
23%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
16%
6.41
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
4%
27.32
17%
5.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.86 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Klagenfurt come into this having played 47 games, going 17W 11D 19L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.23 PPG from 47 outings (16W 10D 21L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Klagenfurt on 1.32 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Austria Klagenfurt's home form reads 7W 6D 10L across their last 23 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.13 points per game from their last 23 away games (7W 5D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.38 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt (Home) vs TSV Hartberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg Form FAQs
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 17W 11D 19L in their last 47 games (1.32 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 16W 10D 21L in their last 47 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Austria Klagenfurt's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.17 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 23 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Aug 2023, when Austria Klagenfurt won TSV Hartberg 0-3 Austria Klagenfurt.
Austria Klagenfurt's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Austria Klagenfurt
4
Draws
2
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Klagenfurt have won 4, TSV Hartberg have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 May 2025: Austria Klagenfurt 0-1 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Klagenfurt 48%, TSV Hartberg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Austria Klagenfurt) and 61% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 35%; Austria Klagenfurt have failed to score in 30% of games; TSV Hartberg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent matches and 48% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Austria Klagenfurt's matches and 61% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent matches and 70% of TSV Hartberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 28 Black Arena, Regular Season - 16, as Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.15 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.86 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. TSV Hartberg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.91 / defence 1.17 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.31 / defence 1.00, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 23% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 54%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 66%, TSV Hartberg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 1.32 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.