SCR Altach 3-0 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SCR Altach at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
SCR Altach welcome Austria Lustenau to CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 16). Kick-off is Tuesday 5 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SCR Altach stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
SCR Altach's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Austria Lustenau — last 10 games: 0W 1D 9L — 0.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Austria Lustenau's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
SCR Altach carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.60 vs 0.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for SCR Altach, 3 for Austria Lustenau and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended SCR Altach 3–0 Austria Lustenau — a SCR Altach win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 47% versus Austria Lustenau 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 47% | Austria Lustenau 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 0.89 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.702 / defence 0.947 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.670 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.198. SCR Altach's attack rating of 0.702 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Austria Lustenau's attack rating of 0.670 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from SCR Altach's last 37 games and Austria Lustenau's last 37.
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 36% | Draw 35% | Austria Lustenau 29%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.75 | Draw 2.89 | Austria Lustenau 3.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS Yes probability 31% | Total xG 1.65. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.65 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Austria Lustenau's lower xG of 0.76 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 77% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SCR Altach's last 10 home games and Austria Lustenau's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SCR Altach 30% (last 10 home games) | Austria Lustenau 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 16 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 36% | Draw 35% | Austria Lustenau 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% (Under 77%) | BTTS Yes 31% (No 69%) | xG SCR Altach 0.89 / Austria Lustenau 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.702 / def 0.947 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.670 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Austria Lustenau xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau FAQs
What time does SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Tuesday 5 December 2023 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
SCR Altach 3 - 0 Austria Lustenau.
Where is SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau part of?
SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 16) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 36% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (69%).
Will SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (77%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.70x the league average against Austria Lustenau's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Lustenau's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SCR Altach's last 37 games and Austria Lustenau's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
36%
2.75
35%
2.89
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
1.65
0.76
Austria Lustenau xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.19
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.2 | 14.6 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.9%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for SCR Altach and 0.76 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 1.65.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SCR Altach come into this having played 47 games, going 9W 14D 24L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Austria Lustenau sit at 0.98 PPG from 47 outings (11W 13D 23L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SCR Altach on 0.87 PPG, Austria Lustenau on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
SCR Altach's home form reads 5W 6D 12L across their last 23 home games, a 0.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Lustenau have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 23 away games (5W 8D 10L).
The Goals Picture
SCR Altach are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.21 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
SCR Altach (Home) vs Austria Lustenau (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SCR Altach
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
❓ SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau Form FAQs
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 9W 14D 24L in their last 47 games (0.87 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 11W 13D 23L in their last 47 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Austria Lustenau away?
Austria Lustenau's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.91 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Nov 2022, when Austria Lustenau won Austria Lustenau 3-0 SCR Altach.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Austria Lustenau specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
2
Draws
4
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, SCR Altach have won 3, Austria Lustenau have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Austria Lustenau 2-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau?
Austria Lustenau have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Austria Lustenau see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 48%, Austria Lustenau 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (SCR Altach) and 44% (Austria Lustenau).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 39% of games; Austria Lustenau in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 48% of Austria Lustenau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of SCR Altach's recent games and 44% of Austria Lustenau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 56% of Austria Lustenau's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SCR Altach run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Austria Lustenau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat Austria Lustenau 3-0 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 0.89 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.76 xG, a combined 1.65. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SCR Altach beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.70 / defence 0.95 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.67 / defence 1.00, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 36% | Draw 35% | Austria Lustenau 29%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 47%, Austria Lustenau 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.87 PPG, Austria Lustenau 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.