Lask Linz 3-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lask Linz at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lask Linz welcome Wolfsberger AC to Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Lask Linz have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wolfsberger AC stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Wolfsberger AC's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Lask Linz carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Wolfsberger AC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 2 for Lask Linz.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Lask Linz 0–1 Wolfsberger AC — a Wolfsberger AC win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Wolfsberger AC have won 6 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Lask Linz trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 53% versus Wolfsberger AC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 57% | Wolfsberger AC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.62 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.049 / defence 1.165 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.923 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.202. Data: built from Lask Linz's last 43 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 43.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 44% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 30%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.25 | Draw 3.89 | Wolfsberger AC 3.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record in our data (6 wins to 2), but Lask Linz carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lask Linz's last 10 home games and Wolfsberger AC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lask Linz 40% (last 10 home games) | Wolfsberger AC 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 44% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Lask Linz 1.62 / Wolfsberger AC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.049 / def 1.165 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.923 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Wolfsberger AC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC FAQs
What time does Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Lask Linz 3 - 1 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 44% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.05x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lask Linz's last 43 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.89
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.91
1.29
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.19
6%
16.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.29 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 27W 10D 16L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 23W 12D 18L from 53 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.72 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.92 PPG from their last 26 home games (15W 5D 6L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 11W 6D 9L from their last 26 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.70 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 64%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Lask Linz (Home) vs Wolfsberger AC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lask Linz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC Form FAQs
What form are Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 27W 10D 16L in their last 53 games (1.72 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 23W 12D 18L in their last 53 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.92 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or Wolfsberger AC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Wolfsberger AC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 1 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Lask Linz have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Aug 2022, when Lask Linz won Wolfsberger AC 1-5 Lask Linz.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lask Linz
0
Draws
6
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lask Linz have won 4, Wolfsberger AC have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 September 2026: Wolfsberger AC 1-3 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 46%, Wolfsberger AC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lask Linz) and 58% (Wolfsberger AC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 62% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Lask Linz's matches and 58% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 85% of Wolfsberger AC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Wolfsberger AC 3-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.62 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.05 / defence 1.17 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.92 / defence 1.17, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 44% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 30%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 57%, Wolfsberger AC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.72 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.