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Poisson rates Grazer AK at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.

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Match Analysis

Grazer AK host Wolfsberger AC at Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Grazer AK have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Grazer AK have posted 3W 4D 3L at Merkur-Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Wolfsberger AC away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Grazer AK have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Wolfsberger AC, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Grazer AK.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 5.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Wolfsberger AC have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 5.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Grazer AK in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grazer AK 63% and Wolfsberger AC 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 56% | Wolfsberger AC 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.79 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 1.056 / defence 1.047 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.927 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Wolfsberger AC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Grazer AK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Grazer AK games / 44 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Grazer AK 53% | Draw 24% | Wolfsberger AC 23%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Wolfsberger AC 4.35. Grazer AK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

Wolfsberger AC lead the H2H ledger, but Grazer AK carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, Grazer AK are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grazer AK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.2 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Grazer AK 80% | Wolfsberger AC 80% BTTS from recent games.

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