Grazer AK 1-1 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grazer AK at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Grazer AK face Ried.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur-Arena plays host to Grazer AK versus Ried in Bundesliga (Relegation Group - 27). Kick-off: Friday 17 April 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Grazer AK have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Grazer AK have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ried (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Ried have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Grazer AK, 1.20 for Ried — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Grazer AK's last 10 home games and Ried's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Grazer AK's games and 70% of Ried's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Grazer AK, 0 for Ried and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 1 Mar 2026, ended Grazer AK 2–1 Ried — a Grazer AK win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Ried half-time and goal-timing data (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 62% versus Ried 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 58% | Ried 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.61 xG and Ried 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 1.046 / defence 1.041 | Ried attack 0.870 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: built from Grazer AK's last 44 games and Ried's last 22.
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 50% | Draw 26% | Ried 24%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.00 | Draw 3.80 | Ried 4.21. Grazer AK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grazer AK are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grazer AK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Grazer AK 80% (last 10 home games) | Ried 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 27 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 17 April 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 50% | Draw 26% | Ried 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Grazer AK 1.61 / Ried 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 1.046 / def 1.041 | Ried attack 0.870 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Grazer AK (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Ried xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Grazer AK vs Ried FAQs
What time does Grazer AK vs Ried kick off?
Grazer AK vs Ried kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 17 April 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs Ried?
Grazer AK 1 - 1 Ried.
Where is Grazer AK vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs Ried part of?
Grazer AK vs Ried is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Group - 27) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 50% chance of winning, Ried a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Grazer AK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Grazer AK and Ried will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Grazer AK vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Grazer AK's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Ried's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Ried's attack (0.87x) against Grazer AK's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Grazer AK's last 44 games and Ried's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grazer AK Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.80
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.65
1.04
Ried xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
5%
21.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Grazer AK vs Ried Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.04 for Ried, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Grazer AK have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 7W 8D 11L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Ried's form line: 10W 5D 11L from 26 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Grazer AK against 1.35 for Ried. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Grazer AK have posted 1.54 PPG from their last 13 home games (5W 5D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Grazer AK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ried have gone 4W 2D 7L from their last 13 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grazer AK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Grazer AK are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.27 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Blended
Ried
Blended
Grazer AK (Home) vs Ried (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Grazer AK
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Grazer AK vs Ried Form FAQs
What form are Grazer AK and Ried in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 7W 8D 11L in their last 26 games (1.12 PPG), while Ried have gone 10W 5D 11L in their last 26 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or Ried away?
Grazer AK's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 1.54 PPG; Ried away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Grazer AK and Ried, the earliest from September 2025. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 21 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Ried have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grazer AK have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ried — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Grazer AK
2
Draws
2
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Grazer AK vs Ried H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Ried?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Grazer AK have won 1, Ried have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and Ried last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 August 2026: Ried 1-0 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and Ried?
Ried have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for Grazer AK, 62% for Ried — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Grazer AK) and 54% (Ried). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ried in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Grazer AK vs Ried Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Grazer AK and Ried matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Grazer AK's games and 62% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Grazer AK and Ried matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Grazer AK's matches and 54% of Ried's.
Do Grazer AK and Ried matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of Grazer AK's recent matches and 69% of Ried's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grazer AK and Ried share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grazer AK and Ried finished level at 1-1 at Merkur-Arena, Relegation Group - 27, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.61 xG and Ried 1.04 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 1.05 / defence 1.04 against Ried attack 0.87 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 50% | Draw 26% | Ried 24%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 58%, Ried 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Ried's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grazer AK 1.12 PPG, Ried 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.