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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Grazer AK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Cashpoint-Arena plays host to SCR Altach versus Grazer AK in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

SCR Altach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Cashpoint-Arena, SCR Altach have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Grazer AK (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Grazer AK away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Grazer AK hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–3 with Grazer AK winning.

It is worth noting that Grazer AK have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

SCR Altach half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 49% versus Grazer AK 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 40% | Grazer AK 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.53 xG and Grazer AK 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 1.009 / defence 0.898 | Grazer AK attack 0.829 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 SCR Altach games / 44 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 52% | Draw 27% | Grazer AK 20%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Grazer AK 5.00. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SCR Altach at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: SCR Altach 70% | Grazer AK 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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