FC BW Linz 2-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC BW Linz host Wolfsberger AC at Hofmann Personal Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 19). Kick-off is Sunday 15 February 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
FC BW Linz — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
FC BW Linz's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wolfsberger AC stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Wolfsberger AC's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Wolfsberger AC's 1.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of FC BW Linz's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, FC BW Linz have won 2, Wolfsberger AC 4, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2025, ended FC BW Linz 0–3 Wolfsberger AC — a Wolfsberger AC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC BW Linz trading profile (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 50% versus Wolfsberger AC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 52% | Wolfsberger AC 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC BW Linz surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Wolfsberger AC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.34 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.956 / defence 1.145 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.076 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.208. Data: built from FC BW Linz's last 40 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 40.
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 34% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 41%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.92 | Draw 3.99 | Wolfsberger AC 2.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC BW Linz's last 10 home games and Wolfsberger AC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC BW Linz 40% (last 10 home games) | Wolfsberger AC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 19 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 34% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG FC BW Linz 1.34 / Wolfsberger AC 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.956 / def 1.145 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.076 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Wolfsberger AC xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC FAQs
What time does FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
FC BW Linz 2 - 1 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 19) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 34% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC BW Linz's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus FC BW Linz's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC BW Linz's last 40 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
34%
2.92
25%
3.99
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.83
1.49
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
8%
12.93
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.49 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, FC BW Linz have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 14W 7D 29L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 23W 11D 16L from 50 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Wolfsberger AC are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC BW Linz.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC BW Linz have posted 1.17 PPG from their last 24 home games (9W 1D 14L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 11W 6D 7L from their last 24 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.74 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 64%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
FC BW Linz (Home) vs Wolfsberger AC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC BW Linz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC Form FAQs
What form are FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 14W 7D 29L in their last 50 games (0.98 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 23W 11D 16L in their last 50 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.17 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from April 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 21 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Aug 2025, when Wolfsberger AC won Wolfsberger AC 3-0 FC BW Linz.
FC BW Linz's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC BW Linz
2
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC BW Linz have won 4, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2026: FC BW Linz 3-0 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 50%, Wolfsberger AC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC BW Linz) and 58% (Wolfsberger AC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC BW Linz's games and 62% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of FC BW Linz's matches and 58% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 88% of Wolfsberger AC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC BW Linz defy the odds to beat Wolfsberger AC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz beat Wolfsberger AC 2-1 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.34 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.49 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.08 / defence 1.08, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 34% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 41%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual FC BW Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 52%, Wolfsberger AC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with FC BW Linz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.