FC BW Linz 0-0 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Lustenau at 40%, yet in-form FC BW Linz provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC BW Linz host Austria Lustenau at Hofmann Personal Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 21 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
FC BW Linz — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, FC BW Linz have posted 0W 3D 1L from their last 4 home games — 0.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Austria Lustenau have recorded 0W 2D 8L — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Austria Lustenau's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, FC BW Linz have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (0.90 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
FC BW Linz trading profile (last 10 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Austria Lustenau trading profile (last 10 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 70% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 50% versus Austria Lustenau 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 60% | Austria Lustenau 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.11 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.835 / defence 1.236 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.779 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.425. Austria Lustenau's attack rating of 0.779 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.37. FC BW Linz's defence rating of 1.236 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Austria Lustenau's projected output up. Data: built from FC BW Linz's last 10 games and Austria Lustenau's last 32.
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 27% | Draw 33% | Austria Lustenau 40%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 3.65 | Draw 3.06 | Austria Lustenau 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Lustenau at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC BW Linz (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Lustenau offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though recent form (FC BW Linz's last 4 home games and Austria Lustenau's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC BW Linz 50% (last 4 home games) | Austria Lustenau 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 11 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 27% | Draw 33% | Austria Lustenau 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG FC BW Linz 1.11 / Austria Lustenau 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.835 / def 1.236 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.779 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Austria Lustenau (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Austria Lustenau xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau FAQs
What time does FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau?
FC BW Linz 0 - 0 Austria Lustenau.
Where is FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau part of?
FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 11) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 27% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Austria Lustenau the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC BW Linz's attack rating (0.83) and Austria Lustenau's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Lustenau's attack versus FC BW Linz's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC BW Linz's last 10 games and Austria Lustenau's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Lustenau Win
27%
3.65
33%
3.06
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.48
1.37
Austria Lustenau xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
7%
14.41
13%
7.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.37 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC BW Linz's recent record stands at 2W 3D 5L from 10 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Austria Lustenau, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 8L across 10 games — 0.20 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC BW Linz by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Austria Lustenau heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC BW Linz have managed 0W 3D 1L from their last 4 home games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Lustenau's away record stands at 0W 2D 2L across their last 4 away games, a 0.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 0.50 scored and 2.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau in 30%.
Last 10 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
FC BW Linz (Home) vs Austria Lustenau (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC BW Linz
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
❓ FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau Form FAQs
What form are FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 (0.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or Austria Lustenau away?
FC BW Linz's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 0.75 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 11 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC BW Linz's record when hosting Austria Lustenau specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
FC BW Linz
2
Draws
2
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, FC BW Linz have won 0, Austria Lustenau have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 May 2024: Austria Lustenau 1-0 FC BW Linz.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau?
Austria Lustenau have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Austria Lustenau see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 50%, Austria Lustenau 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC BW Linz) and 25% (Austria Lustenau).
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz have failed to score in 50% of games; Austria Lustenau in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 50% of Austria Lustenau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC BW Linz's recent games and 25% of Austria Lustenau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 50% of Austria Lustenau's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC BW Linz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau finished level at 0-0 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.11 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.37 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC BW Linz fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Austria Lustenau landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.83 / defence 1.24 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.78 / defence 1.06, drawn from 10/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 27% | Draw 33% | Austria Lustenau 40%, with Austria Lustenau to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 60%, Austria Lustenau 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 70% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC BW Linz arrived the stronger side — 0.90 PPG against 0.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.