Buriram United 0-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Buriram United at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Ratchaburi encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Buriram United and Ratchaburi meet at Chang Arena in Thai League 1 (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 November 2023 at 11:00 UK time.

Form

Buriram United (all games): 5W 5D 0L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Buriram United's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Ratchaburi's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form favours the hosts. Buriram United's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Ratchaburi's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Buriram United, 0 for Ratchaburi and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 7 May 2023, ended Buriram United 1–1 Ratchaburi — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Buriram United — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 42% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 50% versus Ratchaburi 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 58% | Ratchaburi 32%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.88 xG and Ratchaburi 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.094 / defence 0.795 | Ratchaburi attack 0.826 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.266. Buriram United have a tight defence (rating 0.795), which is pulling Ratchaburi's projected output down. Data: built from Buriram United's last 38 games and Ratchaburi's last 40.

Result probabilities: Buriram United 62% | Draw 23% | Ratchaburi 16%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.62 | Draw 4.44 | Ratchaburi 6.35. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (62%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Buriram United's last 10 home games and Ratchaburi's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Buriram United 30% (last 10 home games) | Ratchaburi 50% (last 10 away games).

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