Chonburi FC 1-3 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates BG Pathum United at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Chonburi FC welcome BG Pathum United to Chonburi UTA Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 25 November 2023 at 11:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Chonburi FC — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Chonburi FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, BG Pathum United have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. BG Pathum United's 2.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Chonburi FC's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Chonburi FC, 2 for BG Pathum United and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2023, ended Chonburi FC 0–1 BG Pathum United — a BG Pathum United win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (last 39 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BG Pathum United in-play and half-time data (last 39 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 56% versus BG Pathum United 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 51% | BG Pathum United 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 0.95 xG and BG Pathum United 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.727 / defence 0.930 | BG Pathum United attack 0.904 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.254. Chonburi FC's attack rating of 0.727 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. BG Pathum United bring a tight defence (rating 0.788, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Chonburi FC's projected output down. Data: built from Chonburi FC's last 39 games and BG Pathum United's last 39.

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 30% | Draw 34% | BG Pathum United 36%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 3.29 | Draw 2.99 | BG Pathum United 2.77. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, BG Pathum United are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chonburi FC 50% (last 10 home games) | BG Pathum United 30% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights