Ratchaburi 1-2 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dragon Solar Park plays host to Ratchaburi versus Chonburi FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi at Dragon Solar Park this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ratchaburi are significantly better at Dragon Solar Park than their overall form suggests.
Chonburi FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Ratchaburi, 1.00 for Chonburi FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Ratchaburi register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Chonburi FC in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Ratchaburi 1W, Chonburi FC 1W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 2–1 with Ratchaburi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Chonburi FC half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 54% versus Chonburi FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ratchaburi 30% | Chonburi FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.17 xG and Chonburi FC 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.229 / defence 0.952 | Chonburi FC attack 1.155 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.241. Data: 39 Ratchaburi games / 37 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 55% | Draw 22% | Chonburi FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Chonburi FC 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 80% | Chonburi FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 55% | Draw 22% | Chonburi FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Ratchaburi 2.17 / Chonburi FC 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.229 / def 0.952 | Chonburi FC attack 1.155 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Chonburi FC xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC?
Ratchaburi 1 - 2 Chonburi FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 55% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC?
Record (4 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 2 | Chonburi FC 1W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 1.23x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (1.16x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 39/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
55%
1.81
22%
4.60
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
3.54
1.36
Chonburi FC xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
11%
8.79
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
3%
38.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.36 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 11W 13D 13L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC's form line: 14W 8D 15L from 37 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Ratchaburi against 1.35 for Chonburi FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (7W 8D 3L).
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 4W 5D 9L from 18 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chonburi FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.46 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 11W 13D 13L in their last 37 games (1.24 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 14W 8D 15L in their last 37 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Chonburi FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.61 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ratchaburi go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chonburi FC won 3-0 on 28 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
2
Draws
2
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Chonburi FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-0 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Ratchaburi, 67% for Chonburi FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Ratchaburi) and 56% (Chonburi FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Chonburi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ratchaburi's games and 67% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 56% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chonburi FC defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Ratchaburi 1-2 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 2.17 xG and Chonburi FC 1.36 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ratchaburi fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.23 / defence 0.95 against Chonburi FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.03, drawn from 39/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 55% | Draw 22% | Chonburi FC 23%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Chonburi FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 30%, Chonburi FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.24 PPG, Chonburi FC 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.