Chiangrai United 1-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chiangrai United face Port FC.

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Analysis

Port FC make the trip to Singha Chiangrai Stadium to face Chiangrai United in Thai League 1 (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Sunday 26 November 2023 at 12:00 UK time.

Current Form

Chiangrai United's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Chiangrai United have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Port FC have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Port FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Chiangrai United's last 10 home games and Port FC's last 10 away games) — Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Port FC in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Chiangrai United, 2 for Port FC and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Apr 2023, ended Chiangrai United 2–3 Port FC — a Port FC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Chiangrai United — key trading statistics (last 39 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Port FC — key trading statistics (last 39 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangrai United 67% and Port FC 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 56% | Port FC 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Chiangrai United surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Port FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 54% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.54 xG and Port FC 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.924 / defence 0.744 | Port FC attack 1.307 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.256. Port FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.307, which lifts their away xG to 1.22. Chiangrai United have a tight defence (rating 0.744), which is pulling Port FC's projected output down. Data: built from Chiangrai United's last 39 games and Port FC's last 40.

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 44% | Draw 26% | Port FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.26 | Draw 3.82 | Port FC 3.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Chiangrai United's last 10 home games and Port FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chiangrai United 60% (last 10 home games) | Port FC 100% (last 10 away games).

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