Uthai Thani 0-1 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Police Tero fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Police Tero travel to Uthai Thani Province Stadium to take on Uthai Thani. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023, 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Uthai Thani stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani at Uthai Thani Province Stadium this season: 2W 0D 3L from 5 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Police Tero have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Police Tero have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Uthai Thani at 1.30 PPG versus Police Tero's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Uthai Thani register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Police Tero in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Uthai Thani in-play and half-time data (10 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Police Tero in-play and half-time data (10 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 60% and Police Tero 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Uthai Thani 70% | Police Tero 90%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 2.01 xG and Police Tero 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.966 / defence 1.459 | Police Tero attack 1.018 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.670 / away 1.272. Police Tero bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Uthai Thani's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Uthai Thani games / 40 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 41% | Draw 22% | Police Tero 36%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.44 | Draw 4.55 | Police Tero 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 60% | Police Tero 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 41% | Draw 22% | Police Tero 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG Uthai Thani 2.01 / Police Tero 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.966 / def 1.459 | Police Tero attack 1.018 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.670 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Police Tero xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Police Tero kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Police Tero kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Police Tero?
Uthai Thani 0 - 1 Police Tero.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Police Tero part of?
Uthai Thani vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 41% chance of winning, Police Tero a 36% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Uthai Thani and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Police Tero?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Uthai Thani and Police Tero in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Police Tero (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Uthai Thani's attack rating (0.97) and Police Tero's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Police Tero's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.7%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
41%
2.43
22%
4.46
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
3.90
1.89
Police Tero xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.88
Clean Sheet
15%
6.61
13%
7.47
Win to Nil
6%
16.04
5%
20.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.89 for Police Tero, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Police Tero?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Uthai Thani have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 4W 1D 5L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Police Tero's form line: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Uthai Thani on 1.30 PPG, Police Tero on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Uthai Thani have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Uthai Thani are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Police Tero have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.60 scored and 2.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Police Tero in 100%.
Last 10 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 games (1.30 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Police Tero away?
Uthai Thani's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 2.00 PPG; Police Tero away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Uthai Thani
0
Draws
2
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Police Tero?
From 2 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 0, Police Tero have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Police Tero 1-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Police Tero?
Police Tero have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Uthai Thani at 67%, Police Tero at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Uthai Thani and 100% for Police Tero. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Police Tero?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Uthai Thani's games and 100% of Police Tero's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Uthai Thani's matches and 100% of Police Tero's.
Do Uthai Thani and Police Tero tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Police Tero defy the odds to beat Uthai Thani 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Police Tero beat Uthai Thani 0-1 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 2.01 xG and Police Tero 1.89 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Uthai Thani fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Police Tero landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.97 / defence 1.46 against Police Tero attack 1.02 / defence 1.25, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 41% | Draw 22% | Police Tero 36%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Police Tero win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 70%, Police Tero 90%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (10 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Police Tero's trading profile (10 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.30 PPG, Police Tero 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Police Tero win broke the near-deadlock. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Police Tero (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.