Suwon City FC 1-2 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors encounter.

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Full Analysis

Suwon Sports Complex plays host to Suwon City FC versus Jeonbuk Motors in K League 1 (matchday 10). Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 07:00 UK time.

Current Form

Suwon City FC's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

In front of their own supporters, Suwon City FC have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Suwon City FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Jeonbuk Motors (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Jeonbuk Motors's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Jeonbuk Motors arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Jeonbuk Motors edge it 4 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Suwon City FC 0–6 Jeonbuk Motors — a Jeonbuk Motors win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Suwon City FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 78 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 37 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Jeonbuk Motors half-time and goal-timing data (last 78 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 59% versus Jeonbuk Motors 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 56% | Jeonbuk Motors 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.06 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.098 / defence 1.042 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.031 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.070. Data: built from Suwon City FC's last 42 games and Jeonbuk Motors's last 42.

Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 33% | Draw 29% | Jeonbuk Motors 38%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 3.00 | Draw 3.45 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Suwon City FC's last 10 home games and Jeonbuk Motors's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches point the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Suwon City FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Jeonbuk Motors 50% (last 10 away games).

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