Gangwon FC 0-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Gangwon FC at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC meet at Chuncheon Songam Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 May 2025 at 12:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Gangwon FC have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Gangwon FC at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gangwon FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Suwon City FC's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Gangwon FC's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Suwon City FC's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Gangwon FC edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.1 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2024, ended Gangwon FC 0–4 Suwon City FC — a Suwon City FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Gangwon FC — key trading statistics (last 78 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (last 78 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 37 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 55% versus Suwon City FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 40% | Suwon City FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.31 xG and Suwon City FC 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.884 / defence 0.876 | Suwon City FC attack 0.790 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.044. Suwon City FC's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Gangwon FC's last 43 games and Suwon City FC's last 43.
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 51% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 1.97 | Draw 3.48 | Suwon City FC 4.86. Gangwon FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Gangwon FC's last 10 home games and Suwon City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Gangwon FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Suwon City FC 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 11 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 51% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Gangwon FC 1.31 / Suwon City FC 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.884 / def 0.876 | Suwon City FC attack 0.790 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Suwon City FC xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC FAQs
What time does Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Gangwon FC 0 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 11) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 51% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (0.88) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.79x) against Gangwon FC's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from Gangwon FC's last 43 games and Suwon City FC's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
51%
1.97
29%
3.48
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.03
0.72
Suwon City FC xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
6%
18.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.4 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 0.72 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gangwon FC come into this having played 78 games, going 26W 24D 28L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Suwon City FC sit at 1.14 PPG from 78 outings (24W 17D 37L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Gangwon FC against 1.14 for Suwon City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gangwon FC's home form reads 16W 13D 10L across their last 39 home games, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Suwon City FC have taken 1.05 points per game from their last 39 away games (11W 8D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gangwon FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC (Home) vs Suwon City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC Form FAQs
What form are Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 26W 24D 28L in their last 78 games (1.31 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 24W 17D 37L in their last 78 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.56 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 21 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won Suwon City FC 4-0 Gangwon FC on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gangwon FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
3
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gangwon FC have won 4, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 September 2025: Suwon City FC 1-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 64%, Suwon City FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Gangwon FC) and 56% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Suwon City FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Gangwon FC's games and 59% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 56% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 92% of Suwon City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gangwon FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.31 xG and Suwon City FC 0.72 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gangwon FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.88 against Suwon City FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 51% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 21%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 40%, Suwon City FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.31 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.