Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC host Al Okhdood at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 8 March 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 5W 1D 4L at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Okhdood stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ittihad FC at 1.60 PPG versus Al Okhdood's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Ittihad FC have won 1, Al Okhdood 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ittihad FC in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Al Okhdood in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 54% versus Al Okhdood 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 64% | Al Okhdood 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.06 xG and Al Okhdood 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.187 / defence 1.120 | Al Okhdood attack 0.630 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.490. Data: 52 Al-Ittihad FC games / 22 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 60% | Draw 23% | Al Okhdood 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Al Okhdood 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 80% | Al Okhdood 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 60% | Draw 23% | Al Okhdood 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.06 / Al Okhdood 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.187 / def 1.120 | Al Okhdood attack 0.630 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.490 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Al Okhdood xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 8 March 2024 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 1 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 60% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al Okhdood 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Al Okhdood (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.19x the league average against Al Okhdood's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.44
18%
5.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.11
1.05
Al Okhdood xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
5.63
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
13%
7.85
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
2%
44.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.05 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 11W 4D 7L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Okhdood's form line: 7W 2D 13L from 22 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Okhdood.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 1.60 PPG from 10 outings (5W 1D 4L).
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.82 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 11W 4D 7L in their last 22 games (1.68 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 7W 2D 13L in their last 22 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 1.60 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al Okhdood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Al Okhdood in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ittihad FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2025, when Al-Ittihad FC won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
0
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al Okhdood have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 80%, Al Okhdood 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Al-Ittihad FC and 40% for Al Okhdood. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Okhdood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 40% of Al Okhdood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 40% of Al Okhdood's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Okhdood 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Okhdood 2-1 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.06 xG and Al Okhdood 1.05 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.19 / defence 1.12 against Al Okhdood attack 0.63 / defence 1.20, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 60% | Draw 23% | Al Okhdood 18%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 64%, Al Okhdood 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.