Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (77%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sarpsborg 08 FF face Bodo/Glimt.

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Full Analysis

Sarpsborg Stadion plays host to Sarpsborg 08 FF versus Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien (matchday 12). Kick-off: Friday 28 June 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Current Form

Sarpsborg 08 FF's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sarpsborg 08 FF are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Bodo/Glimt have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 90% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 70% of Bodo/Glimt's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head sample leans to Bodo/Glimt, who have 5 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–2 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading

Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% and Bodo/Glimt 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Bodo/Glimt 72%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sarpsborg 08 FF surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Bodo/Glimt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.94 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.835 / defence 1.443 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.308 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.513. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.308, which lifts their away xG to 2.86. Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating of 1.443 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bodo/Glimt's projected output up. Data: built from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 41 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 42.

Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 9% | Draw 14% | Bodo/Glimt 77%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 10.58 | Draw 7.28 | Bodo/Glimt 1.30. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (77%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 77% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.

Poisson projects 3.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 4.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sarpsborg 08 FF 90% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 70% (last 10 away games).

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