Haugesund 0-1 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (61%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Haugesund face Bodo/Glimt.

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Analysis & Preview

Bodo/Glimt travel to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to take on Haugesund in Eliteserien (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 June 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Haugesund have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Haugesund have gone 5W 0D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Bodo/Glimt — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bodo/Glimt are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

Bodo/Glimt have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Haugesund.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended Haugesund 1–3 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Haugesund trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Bodo/Glimt trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 57% and Bodo/Glimt 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 55% | Bodo/Glimt 72%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Haugesund surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Bodo/Glimt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.01 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.833 / defence 0.950 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.394 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.523. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.394, which lifts their away xG to 2.02. Data: built from Haugesund's last 40 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 41.

Result probabilities: Haugesund 18% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 61%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 5.48 | Draw 4.76 | Bodo/Glimt 1.65. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (61%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Haugesund's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Haugesund 50% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 70% (last 10 away games).

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