Bodo/Glimt 5-1 Brann – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bodo/Glimt face Brann.

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Analysis

Brann make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Sunday 7 July 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Form

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Brann have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Brann have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Bodo/Glimt against 2.10 for Brann. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2023, ended Bodo/Glimt 2–4 Brann — a Brann win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

Brann — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 56% versus Brann 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 63% | Brann 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.36 xG and Brann 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.162 / defence 0.752 | Brann attack 1.040 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.506. Bodo/Glimt have a tight defence (rating 0.752), which is pulling Brann's projected output down. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 43 games and Brann's last 44.

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 41% | Draw 27% | Brann 32%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 2.43 | Draw 3.76 | Brann 3.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 home games) | Brann 60% (last 10 away games).

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