Haugesund 1-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haugesund host Sarpsborg 08 FF at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 July 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund at Haugesund Sparebank Arena this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Sparebank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Haugesund 1.00 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Haugesund, 2 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 1–2 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 49% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 51% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.29 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.769 / defence 0.900 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.093 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.504. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sarpsborg 08 FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Haugesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Haugesund games / 42 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 33% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 30% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 33% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Haugesund 1.29 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.769 / def 0.900 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.093 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.504 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Haugesund 1 - 2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 33% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (6 meetings): Haugesund 2W | Draws 2 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W.
What form are Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Haugesund (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (0.77) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
33%
3.03
25%
3.95
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.77
1.48
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
8%
13.30
11%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.48 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 13W 7D 21L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 15W 6D 20L from 41 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 1.12 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.38 PPG from 21 outings (9W 2D 10L).
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 6W 4D 11L from 21 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.71 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 68%.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 13W 7D 21L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 15W 6D 20L in their last 41 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Haugesund's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.38 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haugesund
3
Draws
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 3, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Haugesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 52%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Haugesund) and 67% (Sarpsborg 08 FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Haugesund's games and 62% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Haugesund's matches and 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sarpsborg 08 FF edge out Haugesund 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Haugesund 1-2 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.29 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.48 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.77 / defence 0.90 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.09 / defence 1.22, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 33% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 51%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.12 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.