ODD Ballklubb 1-1 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Skagerak Arena plays host to ODD Ballklubb versus Kristiansund BK in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 28 June 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
ODD Ballklubb's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 5W 2D 3L at Skagerak Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at Skagerak Arena than their overall form suggests.
Kristiansund BK (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Kristiansund BK have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — ODD Ballklubb have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Kristiansund BK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: ODD Ballklubb 1W, Kristiansund BK 3W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Kristiansund BK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 56% versus Kristiansund BK 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 53% | Kristiansund BK 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.75 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.027 / defence 1.227 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.794 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.513. Kristiansund BK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing ODD Ballklubb's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 ODD Ballklubb games / 12 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 44% | Draw 23% | Kristiansund BK 33%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Kristiansund BK 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 60% | Kristiansund BK 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jun 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 44% | Draw 23% | Kristiansund BK 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.75 / Kristiansund BK 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.027 / def 1.227 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.794 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.513 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Kristiansund BK xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 28 June 2024 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 1 Kristiansund BK.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 44% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK?
Record (6 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 2 | Kristiansund BK 3W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
ODD Ballklubb's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Kristiansund BK's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Kristiansund BK's attack (0.79x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
44%
2.26
23%
4.33
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.22
1.47
Kristiansund BK xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
6%
17.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.3 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.47 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 32 games, going 11W 9D 12L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Kristiansund BK sit at 0.81 PPG from 32 outings (6W 8D 18L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
ODD Ballklubb carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 8W 4D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — ODD Ballklubb are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kristiansund BK have taken 0.56 points per game from 16 outings (2W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.22 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 11W 9D 12L in their last 32 games (1.31 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 6W 8D 18L in their last 32 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Kristiansund BK away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.75 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.56 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Kristiansund BK been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kristiansund BK in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
ODD Ballklubb
4
Draws
3
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK?
From 8 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, Kristiansund BK have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when Kristiansund BK 0-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 50%, Kristiansund BK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (ODD Ballklubb) and 50% (Kristiansund BK).
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Kristiansund BK in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Kristiansund BK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 50% of Kristiansund BK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of ODD Ballklubb's recent games and 50% of Kristiansund BK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 12, as ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.75 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.47 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.03 / defence 1.23 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.79 / defence 1.25, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 44% | Draw 23% | Kristiansund BK 33%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 53%, Kristiansund BK 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ODD Ballklubb arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.