Haugesund 2-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Haugesund face Sandefjord.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sandefjord make the trip to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to face Haugesund in Eliteserien (matchday 10). The match kicks off on Sunday 26 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Haugesund have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Haugesund's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Sandefjord (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sandefjord's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Haugesund, 1.30 for Sandefjord — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Haugesund, 2 for Sandefjord and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Haugesund 0–0 Sandefjord — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 57% versus Sandefjord 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 55% | Sandefjord 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.18 xG and Sandefjord 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.771 / defence 0.957 | Sandefjord attack 0.815 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.528. Haugesund's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Data: built from Haugesund's last 39 games and Sandefjord's last 38.
Result probabilities: Haugesund 36% | Draw 28% | Sandefjord 36%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.81 | Draw 3.59 | Sandefjord 2.74. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Haugesund 36% and Sandefjord 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Haugesund's last 10 home games and Sandefjord's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Haugesund 50% (last 10 home games) | Sandefjord 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 10 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 36% | Draw 28% | Sandefjord 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Haugesund 1.18 / Sandefjord 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.771 / def 0.957 | Sandefjord attack 0.815 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Haugesund and Sandefjord level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sandefjord xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Haugesund vs Sandefjord FAQs
What time does Haugesund vs Sandefjord kick off?
Haugesund vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Sandefjord?
Haugesund 2 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Haugesund vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Sandefjord part of?
Haugesund vs Sandefjord is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 10) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 36% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Haugesund and Sandefjord will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Haugesund vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 0.77x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (0.81x) against Haugesund's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Haugesund's last 39 games and Sandefjord's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
36%
2.81
28%
3.59
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.37
1.19
Sandefjord xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
11%
9.24
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Haugesund vs Sandefjord Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.19 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Haugesund come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 14D 27L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 0.92 PPG from 60 outings (14W 13D 33L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Haugesund against 0.92 for Sandefjord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Haugesund's home form reads 13W 6D 11L across their last 30 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 30 away games (6W 2D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Haugesund are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.50 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
Haugesund (Home) vs Sandefjord (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Haugesund
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Haugesund vs Sandefjord Form FAQs
What form are Haugesund and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 14W 13D 33L in their last 60 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Sandefjord away?
Haugesund's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.50 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Haugesund and Sandefjord, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 29 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Sandefjord have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won Sandefjord 4-0 Haugesund on 22 Jun 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Haugesund
3
Draws
5
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Haugesund vs Sandefjord H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Sandefjord?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Haugesund have won 2, Sandefjord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Sandefjord last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 September 2025: Haugesund 2-3 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 67%, Sandefjord 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Haugesund and 77% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Haugesund vs Sandefjord Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Haugesund and Sandefjord matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Haugesund's games and 53% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Haugesund and Sandefjord matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Haugesund's matches and 77% of Sandefjord's.
Do Haugesund and Sandefjord matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Haugesund's recent matches and 80% of Sandefjord's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haugesund defy the odds to beat Sandefjord 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Sandefjord 2-1 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.18 xG and Sandefjord 1.19 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Haugesund beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.77 / defence 0.96 against Sandefjord attack 0.81 / defence 1.18, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 36% | Draw 28% | Sandefjord 36%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 55%, Sandefjord 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.18 PPG, Sandefjord 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.