Ham-Kam 1-2 Brann – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Brann (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ham-Kam face Brann.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Ham-Kam and Brann meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 June 2024 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Ham-Kam have posted 4W 2D 4L at Briskeby Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Brann (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Brann have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Brann are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Brann hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Brann winning.

It is worth noting that Brann have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Data

Ham-Kam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 43% versus Brann 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 60% | Brann 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.03 xG and Brann 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.861 / defence 0.803 | Brann attack 0.991 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.513. Data: 41 Ham-Kam games / 42 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 31% | Draw 29% | Brann 40%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Brann 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 40% | Brann 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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