Emmen 1-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Den Bosch travel to De Oude Meerdijk to take on Emmen in Eerste Divisie (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Friday 10 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Emmen have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Emmen at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Den Bosch stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Den Bosch away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Emmen carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Emmen, 0 for Den Bosch and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Jan 2022, ended Emmen 2–0 Den Bosch — a Emmen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Den Bosch trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 57% versus Den Bosch 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 55% | Den Bosch 69%). Note also that Den Bosch surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Emmen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 37% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 2.39 xG and Den Bosch 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.052 / defence 1.251 | Den Bosch attack 0.925 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.338. Den Bosch's defence rating of 1.357 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Emmen's projected output up. Emmen's defence rating of 1.251 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Den Bosch's projected output up. Data: built from Emmen's last 13 games and Den Bosch's last 51.
Result probabilities: Emmen 55% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 23%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.81 | Draw 4.72 | Den Bosch 4.26. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 3.94. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.94 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (2.39 / 1.55) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.94 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Emmen's last 10 home games and Den Bosch's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Emmen 60% (last 10 home games) | Den Bosch 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 14 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 10 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 55% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% (Under 25%) | BTTS Yes 72% (No 28%) | xG Emmen 2.39 / Den Bosch 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.052 / def 1.251 | Den Bosch attack 0.925 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Emmen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Den Bosch xG
72%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Emmen vs Den Bosch FAQs
What time does Emmen vs Den Bosch kick off?
Emmen vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 10 November 2023 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Den Bosch?
Emmen 1 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is Emmen vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Den Bosch part of?
Emmen vs Den Bosch is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 14) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 55% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 23% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Emmen and Den Bosch will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Emmen vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Emmen's attack at 1.05x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 2.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Emmen's last 13 games and Den Bosch's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
55%
1.81
21%
4.72
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.94
1.55
Den Bosch xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.63
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
9%
10.88
Win to Nil
12%
8.50
2%
46.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Emmen vs Den Bosch Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Emmen and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Emmen and 1.55 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Emmen come into this having played 51 games, going 14W 15D 22L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Den Bosch sit at 0.88 PPG from 51 outings (13W 6D 32L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.12 PPG, Den Bosch on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Emmen's home form reads 7W 10D 8L across their last 25 home games, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Den Bosch have taken 0.56 points per game from their last 25 away games (4W 2D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Emmen are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.20 scored and 2.18 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
Emmen (Home) vs Den Bosch (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Emmen
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Emmen vs Den Bosch Form FAQs
What form are Emmen and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 14W 15D 22L in their last 51 games (1.12 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 13W 6D 32L in their last 51 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Den Bosch away?
Emmen's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.24 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Nov 2026, when Den Bosch won Emmen 0-5 Den Bosch.
Emmen's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Emmen vs Den Bosch H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Den Bosch?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Emmen have won 5, Den Bosch have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Emmen and Den Bosch last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Emmen 0-5 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Den Bosch?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Emmen see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 48%, Den Bosch 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Emmen) and 68% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 32% of games; Den Bosch in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Emmen vs Den Bosch Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Emmen and Den Bosch matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Emmen's recent matches and 48% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Emmen and Den Bosch matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Emmen's matches and 68% of Den Bosch's.
Do Emmen and Den Bosch matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Emmen's recent matches and 76% of Den Bosch's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Emmen edge out Den Bosch 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Den Bosch 1-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 2.39 xG and Den Bosch 1.55 xG, a combined 3.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Emmen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Den Bosch landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.05 / defence 1.25 against Den Bosch attack 0.93 / defence 1.36, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 55% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 23%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 55%, Den Bosch 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.12 PPG, Den Bosch 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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