NAC Breda 1-1 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rat Verlegh Stadion plays host to NAC Breda versus Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 10 November 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
NAC Breda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong Ajax have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for NAC Breda, 0.90 for Jong Ajax — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Jong Ajax in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Jong Ajax hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2023, ended 2–6 with Jong Ajax winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Jong Ajax have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 5.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Jong Ajax goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 74% and Jong Ajax 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NAC Breda 69% | Jong Ajax 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 2.80 xG and Jong Ajax 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.107 / defence 1.239 | Jong Ajax attack 0.974 / defence 1.515. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.338. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.515 — this is suppressing NAC Breda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 NAC Breda games / 51 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 62% | Draw 18% | Jong Ajax 20%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.61 | Draw 5.56 | Jong Ajax 5.00. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.80 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Jong Ajax lead the H2H ledger, but NAC Breda carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 82% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 76% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 80% | Jong Ajax 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 62% | Draw 18% | Jong Ajax 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 76% | xG NAC Breda 2.80 / Jong Ajax 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.107 / def 1.239 | Jong Ajax attack 0.974 / def 1.515 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.80
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Jong Ajax xG
76%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax kick off?
NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 November 2023 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax?
NAC Breda 1 - 1 Jong Ajax.
Where is NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax part of?
NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 62% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 20% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both NAC Breda and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong Ajax?
Record (4 meetings): NAC Breda 0W | Draws 1 | Jong Ajax 3W.
What form are NAC Breda and Jong Ajax in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Jong Ajax (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
NAC Breda's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Jong Ajax's defensive record (1.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.80. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (0.97x) against NAC Breda's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.7%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.1%), 2-2 (6.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
62%
1.62
18%
5.43
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
2 – 2
6.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.80
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
4.42
1.61
Jong Ajax xG
1.62
62%
Home win
5.43
18%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.16
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
6%
16.49
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
1%
83.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.80 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.61 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 4.42.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NAC Breda come into this having played 51 games, going 22W 8D 21L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 1.08 PPG from 51 outings (14W 13D 24L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.08 for Jong Ajax. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
NAC Breda's home form reads 12W 4D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 0.80 points per game from 25 outings (5W 5D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.71 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Jong Ajax in 73%.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 22W 8D 21L in their last 51 games (1.45 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 14W 13D 24L in their last 51 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Jong Ajax away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.60 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong Ajax won 2-6 on 13 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
2
Draws
3
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong Ajax?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 1, Jong Ajax have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Jong Ajax 0-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Jong Ajax?
Jong Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for NAC Breda, 76% for Jong Ajax — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for NAC Breda and 72% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of NAC Breda's games and 76% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of NAC Breda's matches and 72% of Jong Ajax's.
Do NAC Breda and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda and Jong Ajax share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 14, as NAC Breda and Jong Ajax drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 2.80 xG and Jong Ajax 1.61 xG, a combined 4.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. NAC Breda fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.11 / defence 1.24 against Jong Ajax attack 0.97 / defence 1.51, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 62% | Draw 18% | Jong Ajax 20%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 69%, Jong Ajax 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 74%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.45 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.