Jong PSV U21 2-2 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to PSV Campus De Herdgang to face Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Monday 15 January 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong PSV U21's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Jong PSV U21 have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Den Bosch have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Den Bosch have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 0.60 for Den Bosch. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Jong PSV U21 2W, Den Bosch 3W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jong PSV U21 — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 65% versus Den Bosch 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 68% | Den Bosch 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.47 xG and Den Bosch 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.847 / defence 1.354 | Den Bosch attack 0.706 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.437. Data: 57 Jong PSV U21 games / 58 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 38% | Draw 28% | Den Bosch 34%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Den Bosch 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 70% | Den Bosch 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 15 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 38% | Draw 28% | Den Bosch 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.47 / Den Bosch 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.847 / def 1.354 | Den Bosch attack 0.706 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Den Bosch xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 15 January 2024 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Jong PSV U21 2 - 2 Den Bosch.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 38% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch?
Record (5 meetings): Jong PSV U21 2W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 3W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (0.85) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.71x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 57/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
38%
2.60
28%
3.61
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
2.85
1.37
Den Bosch xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
10%
10.28
8%
12.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.37 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 17W 12D 28L from 57 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 14W 8D 35L across 57 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 0.88 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 9W 5D 14L from 28 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 4W 3D 21L across 28 trips, a 0.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.18 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 12D 28L in their last 57 games (1.11 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 14W 8D 35L in their last 57 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Den Bosch away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.14 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong PSV U21 won 3-0 on 22 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong PSV U21
2
Draws
5
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, Den Bosch have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Den Bosch 1-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 68%, Den Bosch 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Jong PSV U21 and 61% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Jong PSV U21's games and 43% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 61% of Den Bosch's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 21, as Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.47 xG and Den Bosch 1.37 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.85 / defence 1.35 against Den Bosch attack 0.71 / defence 1.07, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 38% | Draw 28% | Den Bosch 34%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 68%, Den Bosch 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.11 PPG, Den Bosch 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.