FC OSS 0-5 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Willem II (62%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as FC OSS face Willem II.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Frans Heesen Stadion plays host to FC OSS versus Willem II in Eerste Divisie (matchday 21). Kick-off: Friday 12 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC OSS have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
FC OSS's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — FC OSS are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Willem II's record over their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Willem II's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Willem II are the stronger side — 1.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Willem II have the stronger record — 3 wins to FC OSS's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2023, ended FC OSS 1–2 Willem II — a Willem II win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Willem II have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 45% versus Willem II 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 55% | Willem II 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC OSS surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Willem II have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 62% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 0.82 xG and Willem II 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.758 / defence 1.190 | Willem II attack 1.145 / defence 0.685. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.403. FC OSS's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Willem II bring a tight defence (rating 0.685, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling FC OSS's projected output down. Data: built from FC OSS's last 58 games and Willem II's last 58.
Result probabilities: FC OSS 14% | Draw 24% | Willem II 62%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 6.98 | Draw 4.19 | Willem II 1.62. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (62%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC OSS 30% (last 10 home games) | Willem II 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 21 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 14% | Draw 24% | Willem II 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG FC OSS 0.82 / Willem II 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.758 / def 1.190 | Willem II attack 1.145 / def 0.685 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Willem II (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Willem II xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC OSS vs Willem II FAQs
What time does FC OSS vs Willem II kick off?
FC OSS vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 12 January 2024 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Willem II?
FC OSS 0 - 5 Willem II.
Where is FC OSS vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Willem II part of?
FC OSS vs Willem II is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 21) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 14% chance of winning, Willem II a 62% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC OSS and Willem II will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will FC OSS vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC OSS's attack at 0.76x the league average against Willem II's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (1.15x) against FC OSS's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.91.
These ratings are built from FC OSS's last 58 games and Willem II's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
14%
6.98
24%
4.19
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.74
1.91
Willem II xG
6.98
14%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
15%
6.77
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
2%
47.22
27%
3.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 12.4 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC OSS vs Willem II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.91 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC OSS's recent record stands at 13W 9D 36L from 58 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 33W 14D 11L across 58 games — 1.95 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Willem II by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC OSS heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 9W 3D 16L from their last 28 home games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 11W 11D 6L across their last 28 away games, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC OSS are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.91 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 62%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Willem II
Blended
FC OSS (Home) vs Willem II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC OSS
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ FC OSS vs Willem II Form FAQs
What form are FC OSS and Willem II in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 13W 9D 36L in their last 58 games (0.83 PPG), while Willem II have gone 33W 14D 11L in their last 58 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.07 PPG; Willem II away: 1.57 PPG.
Have FC OSS or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC OSS have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Willem II in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 13 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won FC OSS 0-5 Willem II on 12 Jan 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
FC OSS
1
Draws
5
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ FC OSS vs Willem II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Willem II?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, FC OSS have won 0, Willem II have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Willem II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 March 2026: FC OSS 1-3 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 46%, Willem II 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (FC OSS) and 54% (Willem II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC OSS vs Willem II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC OSS and Willem II matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of FC OSS's games and 64% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC OSS and Willem II matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of FC OSS's matches and 54% of Willem II's.
Do FC OSS and Willem II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of FC OSS's recent matches and 79% of Willem II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Willem II run riot with a 0-5 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat FC OSS 0-5 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 0.82 xG and Willem II 1.91 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. FC OSS fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Willem II outscored their 1.91 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.76 / defence 1.19 against Willem II attack 1.15 / defence 0.69, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 14% | Draw 24% | Willem II 62%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 55%, Willem II 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Willem II's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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