Emmen 2-3 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 49%, yet the head-to-head data favours Emmen — this Emmen vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Emmen welcome NAC Breda to De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Emmen have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Emmen's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
NAC Breda — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
NAC Breda's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Emmen) versus 1.70 (NAC Breda). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Emmen hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 0 for NAC Breda and 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2023, ended Emmen 3–1 NAC Breda — a Emmen win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Emmen and goals — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
NAC Breda trading profile (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Emmen 55% and NAC Breda 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 55% | NAC Breda 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.26 xG and NAC Breda 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.832 / defence 0.982 | NAC Breda attack 1.291 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.426. NAC Breda have an above-average attack rating of 1.291, which lifts their away xG to 1.81. Data: built from Emmen's last 20 games and NAC Breda's last 58.
Result probabilities: Emmen 25% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 49%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 3.94 | Draw 3.91 | NAC Breda 2.04. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.26 / 1.81) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Emmen's last 10 home games and NAC Breda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Emmen 50% (last 10 home games) | NAC Breda 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 21 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 25% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Emmen 1.26 / NAC Breda 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.832 / def 0.982 | NAC Breda attack 1.291 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.426 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.81
NAC Breda xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Emmen vs NAC Breda FAQs
What time does Emmen vs NAC Breda kick off?
Emmen vs NAC Breda kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Emmen 2 - 3 NAC Breda.
Where is Emmen vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs NAC Breda part of?
Emmen vs NAC Breda is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 21) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 25% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Emmen and NAC Breda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Emmen vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Emmen's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Emmen's last 20 games and NAC Breda's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
25%
3.94
26%
3.91
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.07
1.81
NAC Breda xG
3.94
25%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
4%
24.01
14%
7.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Emmen vs NAC Breda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Emmen and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Emmen and 1.81 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 17W 15D 26L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
NAC Breda's form line: 26W 9D 23L from 58 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.14 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emmen have posted 1.32 PPG from their last 28 home games (9W 10D 9L).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 12W 3D 13L from their last 28 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.74 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 72%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
Emmen (Home) vs NAC Breda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Emmen
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Emmen vs NAC Breda Form FAQs
What form are Emmen and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 17W 15D 26L in their last 58 games (1.14 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 26W 9D 23L in their last 58 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.32 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 May 2024, when NAC Breda won Emmen 0-3 NAC Breda.
Emmen's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Emmen vs NAC Breda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and NAC Breda?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Emmen have won 5, NAC Breda have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Emmen and NAC Breda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 May 2024: Emmen 0-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and NAC Breda?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 43%, NAC Breda 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Emmen and 79% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Emmen vs NAC Breda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Emmen and NAC Breda matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Emmen's games and 71% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Emmen and NAC Breda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Emmen's matches and 79% of NAC Breda's.
Do Emmen and NAC Breda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Emmen's recent matches and 89% of NAC Breda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NAC Breda edge out Emmen 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Emmen 2-3 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.26 xG and NAC Breda 1.81 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. NAC Breda outscored their 1.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.83 / defence 0.98 against NAC Breda attack 1.29 / defence 0.93, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 25% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 49%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 55%, NAC Breda 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.14 PPG, NAC Breda 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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