Dordrecht 2-0 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Helmond Sport travel to M-Scores Stadion to take on Dordrecht in Eerste Divisie (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Friday 12 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dordrecht stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Dordrecht at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Helmond Sport have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Helmond Sport have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Dordrecht have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Dordrecht's last 10 home games and Helmond Sport's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Dordrecht have won 1, Helmond Sport 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 23 Oct 2023, ended Dordrecht 1–1 Helmond Sport — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Helmond Sport in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 59% versus Helmond Sport 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 60% | Helmond Sport 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.49 xG and Helmond Sport 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.273 / defence 1.039 | Helmond Sport attack 1.001 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.403. Dordrecht carry an above-average attack rating of 1.273 — their 2.49 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Helmond Sport's defence rating of 1.234 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dordrecht's projected output up. Data: built from Dordrecht's last 58 games and Helmond Sport's last 58.
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 59% | Draw 20% | Helmond Sport 21%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.69 | Draw 4.97 | Helmond Sport 4.86. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS Yes probability 71% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% — both xG figures (2.49 / 1.46) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Dordrecht's last 10 home games and Helmond Sport's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dordrecht 70% (last 10 home games) | Helmond Sport 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 21 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 59% | Draw 20% | Helmond Sport 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% (Under 25%) | BTTS Yes 71% (No 29%) | xG Dordrecht 2.49 / Helmond Sport 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.273 / def 1.039 | Helmond Sport attack 1.001 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Helmond Sport xG
71%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport FAQs
What time does Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 12 January 2024 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Dordrecht 2 - 0 Helmond Sport.
Where is Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport part of?
Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 21) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 59% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Dordrecht and Helmond Sport will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (1.27) and Helmond Sport's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dordrecht's last 58 games and Helmond Sport's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.9%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
59%
1.69
20%
4.97
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.95
1.46
Helmond Sport xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.47
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
8%
12.09
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
2%
58.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.46 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 17W 17D 24L from 58 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Helmond Sport, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 26L across 58 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.17 PPG, Helmond Sport on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 10W 9D 9L from their last 28 home games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Helmond Sport's away record stands at 6W 7D 15L across their last 28 away games, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.22 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
Dordrecht (Home) vs Helmond Sport (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dordrecht
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport Form FAQs
What form are Dordrecht and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 17W 17D 24L in their last 58 games (1.17 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 18W 14D 26L in their last 58 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Helmond Sport away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.39 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 3 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Dordrecht have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Nov 2024, when Dordrecht won Dordrecht 4-0 Helmond Sport.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Dordrecht
2
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Helmond Sport?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dordrecht have won 6, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Helmond Sport last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2026: Dordrecht 3-0 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Helmond Sport?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 54%, Helmond Sport 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Dordrecht and 54% for Helmond Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Helmond Sport in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dordrecht and Helmond Sport matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 54% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dordrecht and Helmond Sport matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Dordrecht's matches and 54% of Helmond Sport's.
Do Dordrecht and Helmond Sport matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 71% of Helmond Sport's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Helmond Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Helmond Sport 2-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.49 xG and Helmond Sport 1.46 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Helmond Sport landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.27 / defence 1.04 against Helmond Sport attack 1.00 / defence 1.23, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 59% | Draw 20% | Helmond Sport 21%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 60%, Helmond Sport 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.17 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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