Jong Ajax 0-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jong Ajax face Groningen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Jong Ajax welcome Groningen to Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie (matchday 21). Kick-off is Monday 22 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Jong Ajax — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Jong Ajax's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Groningen have recorded 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Groningen have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Jong Ajax) versus 1.90 (Groningen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Jong Ajax, 1 for Groningen and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 11 Aug 2023, ended Jong Ajax 1–4 Groningen — a Groningen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong Ajax trading profile (last 54 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Groningen trading profile (last 54 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 78% and Groningen 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 67% | Groningen 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.54 xG and Groningen 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.083 / defence 0.819 | Groningen attack 1.038 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.399. Data: built from Jong Ajax's last 59 games and Groningen's last 20.
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 44% | Draw 28% | Groningen 28%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.27 | Draw 3.58 | Groningen 3.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Ajax at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jong Ajax's last 10 home games and Groningen's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong Ajax 60% (last 10 home games) | Groningen 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Groningen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 21 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 22 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 44% | Draw 28% | Groningen 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Jong Ajax 1.54 / Groningen 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.083 / def 0.819 | Groningen attack 1.038 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Groningen xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong Ajax vs Groningen FAQs
What time does Jong Ajax vs Groningen kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Groningen kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 22 January 2024 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Groningen?
Jong Ajax 0 - 1 Groningen.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Groningen part of?
Jong Ajax vs Groningen is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 21) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 44% chance of winning, Groningen a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jong Ajax and Groningen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong Ajax vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong Ajax's attack at 1.08x the league average against Groningen's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jong Ajax's last 59 games and Groningen's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
44%
2.27
28%
3.58
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.73
1.19
Groningen xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
6%
16.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong Ajax vs Groningen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.19 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong Ajax's recent record stands at 15W 17D 22L from 54 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Groningen, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 30L across 54 games — 0.93 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Ajax on 1.15 PPG, Groningen on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong Ajax have managed 10W 7D 8L from their last 25 home games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Groningen's away record stands at 4W 5D 16L across their last 25 away games, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.17 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
Groningen
Blended
Jong Ajax (Home) vs Groningen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong Ajax
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Jong Ajax vs Groningen Form FAQs
What form are Jong Ajax and Groningen in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 15W 17D 22L in their last 54 games (1.15 PPG), while Groningen have gone 13W 11D 30L in their last 54 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Groningen away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.48 PPG; Groningen away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 22 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Jong Ajax
0
Draws
2
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong Ajax vs Groningen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Groningen?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong Ajax have won 0, Groningen have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Groningen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 January 2024: Jong Ajax 0-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Groningen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 72%, Groningen 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Jong Ajax and 56% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong Ajax vs Groningen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong Ajax and Groningen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Jong Ajax's games and 52% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jong Ajax and Groningen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Jong Ajax's matches and 56% of Groningen's.
Do Jong Ajax and Groningen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Jong Ajax's recent matches and 60% of Groningen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Groningen defy the odds to beat Jong Ajax 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Jong Ajax 0-1 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.54 xG and Groningen 1.19 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong Ajax fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.08 / defence 0.82 against Groningen attack 1.04 / defence 0.89, drawn from 59/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 44% | Draw 28% | Groningen 28%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Groningen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 67%, Groningen 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Groningen's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.15 PPG, Groningen 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Groningen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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