Jong PSV U21 3-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jong PSV U21 face Cambuur.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 host Cambuur at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie (matchday 28). Kick-off is Monday 4 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Jong PSV U21 have gone 1W 5D 4L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Jong PSV U21's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cambuur stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Cambuur's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong PSV U21 at 0.80 PPG versus Cambuur's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Jong PSV U21's last 10 home games and Cambuur's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Jong PSV U21, 0 for Cambuur and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 7.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2023, ended Jong PSV U21 4–3 Cambuur — a Jong PSV U21 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 7.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jong PSV U21 in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 67% and Cambuur 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 70% | Cambuur 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.55 xG and Cambuur 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.876 / defence 1.174 | Cambuur attack 1.161 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.339. Data: built from Jong PSV U21's last 65 games and Cambuur's last 27.
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 32% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 43%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 3.17 | Draw 3.92 | Cambuur 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.55 / 1.82) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jong PSV U21's last 10 home games and Cambuur's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong PSV U21 70% (last 10 home games) | Cambuur 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 28 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 4 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 32% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Jong PSV U21 1.55 / Cambuur 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.876 / def 1.174 | Cambuur attack 1.161 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Cambuur xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur FAQs
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 4 March 2024 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur?
Jong PSV U21 3 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 28) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 32% chance of winning, Cambuur a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong PSV U21's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jong PSV U21's last 65 games and Cambuur's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
32%
3.17
26%
3.92
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.37
1.82
Cambuur xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
16%
6.20
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
5%
19.69
9%
10.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.82 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong PSV U21 come into this having played 61 games, going 17W 15D 29L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 0.95 PPG from 61 outings (16W 10D 35L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 1.08 PPG, Cambuur on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jong PSV U21's home form reads 10W 7D 13L across their last 30 home games, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 6D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.41 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
Jong PSV U21 (Home) vs Cambuur (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur Form FAQs
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 15D 29L in their last 61 games (1.08 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 16W 10D 35L in their last 61 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Cambuur away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.23 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 2 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Feb 2025, when Cambuur won Jong PSV U21 1-4 Cambuur.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Jong PSV U21
0
Draws
3
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, Cambuur have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 February 2026: Jong PSV U21 3-2 Cambuur.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong PSV U21 at 70%, Cambuur at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Jong PSV U21 and 63% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Jong PSV U21's games and 63% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 63% of Cambuur's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Jong PSV U21's recent matches and 77% of Cambuur's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Cambuur 3-1 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.55 xG and Cambuur 1.82 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cambuur landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.88 / defence 1.17 against Cambuur attack 1.16 / defence 1.09, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 32% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 43%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Jong PSV U21 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 70%, Cambuur 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.08 PPG, Cambuur 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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