Den Bosch 1-4 Groningen – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Groningen at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Groningen encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Den Bosch welcome Groningen to Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie (matchday 28). Kick-off is Monday 4 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Den Bosch have gone 1W 6D 3L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Groningen stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Groningen have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Groningen — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Den Bosch, 0 for Groningen and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2023, ended Den Bosch 3–0 Groningen — a Den Bosch win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Den Bosch in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

Groningen in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 52% versus Groningen 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 63% | Groningen 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 0.80 xG and Groningen 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.682 / defence 1.023 | Groningen attack 1.009 / defence 0.723. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.339. Den Bosch's attack rating of 0.682 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Groningen bring a tight defence (rating 0.723, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Den Bosch's projected output down. Data: built from Den Bosch's last 65 games and Groningen's last 26.

Result probabilities: Den Bosch 20% | Draw 32% | Groningen 49%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 5.07 | Draw 3.17 | Groningen 2.05. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Den Bosch 50% (last 10 home games) | Groningen 50% (last 10 away games).

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