Emmen 2-0 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Emmen host Willem II at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie (matchday 28). Kick-off is Friday 1 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Emmen — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Emmen's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Emmen are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Willem II stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Willem II away from home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Willem II are 1.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Emmen have won 0, Willem II 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Dec 2023, ended Emmen 0–3 Willem II — a Willem II win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Emmen in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Willem II in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 55% versus Willem II 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 56% | Willem II 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Emmen surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Willem II have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 62% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Willem II surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Emmen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 0.86 xG and Willem II 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.872 / defence 0.921 | Willem II attack 1.272 / defence 0.612. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.359. Willem II bring a tight defence (rating 0.612, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Emmen's projected output down. Willem II have an above-average attack rating of 1.272, which lifts their away xG to 1.59. Data: built from Emmen's last 26 games and Willem II's last 65.
Result probabilities: Emmen 19% | Draw 28% | Willem II 53%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 5.28 | Draw 3.61 | Willem II 1.87. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Emmen 40% (last 10 home games) | Willem II 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 28 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 1 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 19% | Draw 28% | Willem II 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Emmen 0.86 / Willem II 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.872 / def 0.921 | Willem II attack 1.272 / def 0.612 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Willem II (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Willem II xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Emmen vs Willem II FAQs
What time does Emmen vs Willem II kick off?
Emmen vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 1 March 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Willem II?
Emmen 2 - 0 Willem II.
Where is Emmen vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Willem II part of?
Emmen vs Willem II is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 28) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 19% chance of winning, Willem II a 53% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Emmen and Willem II will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Emmen vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Emmen's attack rating (0.87) and Willem II's defence rating (0.61), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Emmen's last 26 games and Willem II's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-2 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
19%
5.28
28%
3.61
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.45
1.59
Willem II xG
5.28
19%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
4%
25.93
23%
4.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 13.7 | 10.9 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Emmen vs Willem II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Emmen and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Emmen and 1.59 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Emmen come into this having played 64 games, going 18W 16D 30L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.91 PPG from 64 outings (35W 17D 12L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Emmen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Emmen's home form reads 10W 11D 10L across their last 31 home games, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 1.65 points per game from their last 31 away games (13W 12D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.92 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 62%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Willem II
Blended
Emmen (Home) vs Willem II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Emmen
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Emmen vs Willem II Form FAQs
What form are Emmen and Willem II in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 18W 16D 30L in their last 64 games (1.09 PPG), while Willem II have gone 35W 17D 12L in their last 64 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.32 PPG; Willem II away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Emmen or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Willem II in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 27 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Dec 2023, when Willem II won Willem II 3-0 Emmen.
Emmen's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Emmen
1
Draws
2
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Emmen vs Willem II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Willem II?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Emmen have won 1, Willem II have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Emmen and Willem II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2026: Emmen 0-3 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 45%, Willem II 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Emmen) and 52% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Emmen vs Willem II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Emmen and Willem II matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Emmen's recent matches and 61% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Emmen and Willem II matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Emmen's recent games and 52% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and Willem II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Emmen's recent matches and 77% of Willem II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Willem II 2-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 0.86 xG and Willem II 1.59 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Willem II landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.87 / defence 0.92 against Willem II attack 1.27 / defence 0.61, drawn from 26/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 19% | Draw 28% | Willem II 53%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Emmen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 56%, Willem II 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Willem II's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Emmen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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