ADO Den Haag 2-1 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 69% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ADO Den Haag vs Jong Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
ADO Den Haag welcome Jong Ajax to Bingoal Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 28). Kick-off is Friday 1 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, ADO Den Haag have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, ADO Den Haag have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong Ajax — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jong Ajax's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, ADO Den Haag have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from ADO Den Haag's last 10 home games and Jong Ajax's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, ADO Den Haag have won 2, Jong Ajax 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Oct 2023, ended ADO Den Haag 0–0 Jong Ajax — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
ADO Den Haag in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ADO Den Haag 66% and Jong Ajax 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ADO Den Haag 68% | Jong Ajax 66%). Note also that Jong Ajax surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while ADO Den Haag recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 2.83 xG and Jong Ajax 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.421 / defence 0.973 | Jong Ajax attack 0.966 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.359. ADO Den Haag carry an above-average attack rating of 1.421 — their 2.83 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Jong Ajax's defence rating of 1.235 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing ADO Den Haag's projected output up. Data: built from ADO Den Haag's last 65 games and Jong Ajax's last 65.
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 69% | Draw 17% | Jong Ajax 14%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 1.45 | Draw 5.88 | Jong Ajax 7.10. The model has a clear lean to ADO Den Haag (69%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 4.11. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.11 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.83 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (ADO Den Haag's last 10 home games and Jong Ajax's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: ADO Den Haag 70% (last 10 home games) | Jong Ajax 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 28 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 69% | Draw 17% | Jong Ajax 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% (Under 22%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG ADO Den Haag 2.83 / Jong Ajax 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.421 / def 0.973 | Jong Ajax attack 0.966 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.83
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Jong Ajax xG
69%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Jong Ajax FAQs
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Jong Ajax kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 1 March 2024 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Jong Ajax?
ADO Den Haag 2 - 1 Jong Ajax.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Jong Ajax part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Jong Ajax is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 28) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 69% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 14% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Jong Ajax will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will ADO Den Haag vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (1.42) and Jong Ajax's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 2.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from ADO Den Haag's last 65 games and Jong Ajax's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.4%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.9%), 1-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
69%
1.45
17%
5.88
14%
7.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.83
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
4.11
1.28
Jong Ajax xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.88
17%
Draw
7.10
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
6%
16.89
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
1%
119.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Jong Ajax Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.83 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.28 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 4.11.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Jong Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
ADO Den Haag's recent record stands at 27W 20D 18L from 65 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Jong Ajax, meanwhile, have gone 19W 19D 27L across 65 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: ADO Den Haag on 1.55 PPG, Jong Ajax on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, ADO Den Haag have managed 13W 10D 9L from their last 32 home games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Ajax's away record stands at 6W 10D 16L across their last 32 away games, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.69 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Jong Ajax in 71%.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
ADO Den Haag (Home) vs Jong Ajax (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ADO Den Haag
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Jong Ajax Form FAQs
What form are ADO Den Haag and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 27W 20D 18L in their last 65 games (1.55 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 19W 19D 27L in their last 65 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Jong Ajax away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.53 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 3 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: ADO Den Haag have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Aug 2022, when ADO Den Haag won ADO Den Haag 4-0 Jong Ajax.
ADO Den Haag's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
ADO Den Haag
2
Draws
2
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Jong Ajax H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Jong Ajax?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, ADO Den Haag have won 6, Jong Ajax have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Jong Ajax last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 April 2026: ADO Den Haag 4-2 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Jong Ajax?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ADO Den Haag at 69%, Jong Ajax at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for ADO Den Haag and 69% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Jong Ajax Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ADO Den Haag and Jong Ajax matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of ADO Den Haag's games and 78% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are ADO Den Haag and Jong Ajax matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 69% of Jong Ajax's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Jong Ajax matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of ADO Den Haag's recent matches and 88% of Jong Ajax's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out Jong Ajax 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Jong Ajax 2-1 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.83 xG and Jong Ajax 1.28 xG, a combined 4.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. ADO Den Haag fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.42 / defence 0.97 against Jong Ajax attack 0.97 / defence 1.24, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 69% | Draw 17% | Jong Ajax 14%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 68%, Jong Ajax 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 1.55 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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