Jong AZ 4-1 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jong AZ face Jong PSV U21.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Jong PSV U21 travel to AFAS Trainingscomplex to take on Jong AZ in Eerste Divisie (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Friday 8 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Jong AZ stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Jong AZ at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jong PSV U21 — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Jong PSV U21 away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong AZ 1.50 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Jong AZ, 1 for Jong PSV U21 and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2023, ended Jong AZ 2–1 Jong PSV U21 — a Jong AZ win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong AZ trading profile (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Jong PSV U21 trading profile (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 61% and Jong PSV U21 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 61% | Jong PSV U21 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 2.35 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.133 / defence 1.011 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.176 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.366. Jong PSV U21's defence rating of 1.283 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jong AZ's projected output up. Data: built from Jong AZ's last 66 games and Jong PSV U21's last 66.
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 53% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 25%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.89 | Draw 4.58 | Jong PSV U21 3.96. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 74% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% — both xG figures (2.35 / 1.62) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.98 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Jong AZ's last 10 home games and Jong PSV U21's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong AZ 40% (last 10 home games) | Jong PSV U21 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 29 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 8 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 53% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 74% (No 26%) | xG Jong AZ 2.35 / Jong PSV U21 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.133 / def 1.011 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.176 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Jong PSV U21 xG
74%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 FAQs
What time does Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 8 March 2024 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Jong AZ 4 - 1 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 29) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 53% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong AZ's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.35. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jong AZ's last 66 games and Jong PSV U21's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
53%
1.89
22%
4.58
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.98
1.62
Jong PSV U21 xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.81
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
10%
10.52
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
2%
41.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.62 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 25W 16D 25L from 66 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Jong PSV U21, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 31L across 66 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.38 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong AZ have managed 15W 9D 8L from their last 32 home games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong PSV U21's away record stands at 7W 9D 16L across their last 32 away games, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.55 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Jong PSV U21 in 67%.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Current Season
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
Jong AZ (Home) vs Jong PSV U21 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong AZ
Current Season
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
❓ Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 Form FAQs
What form are Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 25W 16D 25L in their last 66 games (1.38 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 19W 16D 31L in their last 66 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.69 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Mar 2024, when Jong AZ won Jong AZ 4-1 Jong PSV U21.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong AZ
3
Draws
4
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong AZ have won 3, Jong PSV U21 have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Jong PSV U21 1-1 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 56%, Jong PSV U21 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Jong AZ and 66% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Jong PSV U21 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Jong AZ's games and 69% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Jong AZ's matches and 66% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 81% of Jong PSV U21's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Jong PSV U21 4-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 2.35 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.62 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Jong AZ beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.13 / defence 1.01 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.18 / defence 1.28, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 53% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 25%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 61%, Jong PSV U21 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.38 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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