ADO Den Haag 4-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 40%, yet the head-to-head data favours ADO Den Haag — this ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ meet at Bingoal Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 4). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 September 2023 at 16:45 UK time.
Current Form
ADO Den Haag's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
ADO Den Haag at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong AZ have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from ADO Den Haag's last 10 home games and Jong AZ's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of ADO Den Haag's games and 70% of Jong AZ's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, ADO Den Haag have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Jong AZ managing 0 and 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2023, ended ADO Den Haag 2–0 Jong AZ — a ADO Den Haag win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both ADO Den Haag and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
ADO Den Haag — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ADO Den Haag 61% and Jong AZ 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 61% | Jong AZ 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: ADO Den Haag surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Jong AZ have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.46 xG and Jong AZ 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 0.861 / defence 1.291 | Jong AZ attack 0.975 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.247. ADO Den Haag's defence rating of 1.291 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jong AZ's projected output up. Data: built from ADO Den Haag's last 41 games and Jong AZ's last 41.
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 35% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 40%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.82 | Draw 4.14 | Jong AZ 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.46 / 1.57) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong AZ if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (ADO Den Haag's last 10 home games and Jong AZ's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: ADO Den Haag 80% (last 10 home games) | Jong AZ 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 4 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 September 2023 at 16:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 35% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG ADO Den Haag 1.46 / Jong AZ 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 0.861 / def 1.291 | Jong AZ attack 0.975 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Jong AZ xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ FAQs
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ kicked off at 16:45 UK time on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ?
ADO Den Haag 4 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 4) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 35% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates ADO Den Haag's attack at 0.86x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.97x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from ADO Den Haag's last 41 games and Jong AZ's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
35%
2.82
24%
4.14
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.03
1.57
Jong AZ xG
2.82
35%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
7%
13.55
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.57 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, ADO Den Haag have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 14W 13D 14L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Jong AZ's form line: 16W 9D 16L from 41 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for ADO Den Haag against 1.39 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, ADO Den Haag have posted 1.20 PPG from their last 20 home games (6W 6D 8L).
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 6W 2D 12L from their last 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.59 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Jong AZ in 61%.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
Jong AZ
Early Season
ADO Den Haag (Home) vs Jong AZ (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
Jong AZ
Early Season
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ Form FAQs
What form are ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 14W 13D 14L in their last 41 games (1.34 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 16W 9D 16L in their last 41 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Jong AZ away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.20 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 30 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ADO Den Haag won Jong AZ 0-4 ADO Den Haag on 3 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
ADO Den Haag
2
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, ADO Den Haag have won 6, Jong AZ have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 January 2026: ADO Den Haag 1-4 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 65%, Jong AZ 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for ADO Den Haag and 60% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of ADO Den Haag's games and 55% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 60% of Jong AZ's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of ADO Den Haag's recent matches and 75% of Jong AZ's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant ADO Den Haag run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Jong AZ 4-1 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.46 xG and Jong AZ 1.57 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. ADO Den Haag beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 0.86 / defence 1.29 against Jong AZ attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 35% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 40%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual ADO Den Haag win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 61%, Jong AZ 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 1.34 PPG, Jong AZ 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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