De Graafschap 2-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as De Graafschap face Den Bosch.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to Stadion De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Friday 23 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
De Graafschap have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
De Graafschap at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — De Graafschap are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Den Bosch (all games): 1W 7D 2L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Den Bosch's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.00 for Den Bosch. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for De Graafschap, 1 for Den Bosch and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Dec 2023, ended De Graafschap 4–0 Den Bosch — a De Graafschap win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 53% versus Den Bosch 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 59% | Den Bosch 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.76 xG and Den Bosch 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.040 / defence 0.901 | Den Bosch attack 0.683 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.325. Den Bosch's attack rating of 0.683 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from De Graafschap's last 64 games and Den Bosch's last 64.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 58% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 16%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.72 | Draw 3.83 | Den Bosch 6.41. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (58%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: De Graafschap 60% (last 10 home games) | Den Bosch 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 23 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 58% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG De Graafschap 1.76 / Den Bosch 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.040 / def 0.901 | Den Bosch attack 0.683 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Den Bosch xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ De Graafschap vs Den Bosch FAQs
What time does De Graafschap vs Den Bosch kick off?
De Graafschap vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 23 February 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
De Graafschap 2 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch part of?
De Graafschap vs Den Bosch is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 27) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 58% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both De Graafschap and Den Bosch will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will De Graafschap vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.04x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.68x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from De Graafschap's last 64 games and Den Bosch's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
58%
1.72
26%
3.83
16%
6.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.57
0.81
Den Bosch xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
6.41
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
17%
5.79
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
3%
37.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ De Graafschap vs Den Bosch Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.81 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 28W 11D 25L from 64 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 37L across 64 games — 0.86 PPG, with D-D-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Den Bosch heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 16W 5D 10L from their last 31 home games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 4W 5D 22L across their last 31 away games, a 0.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.09 scored and 2.03 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
De Graafschap (Home) vs Den Bosch (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
De Graafschap
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ De Graafschap vs Den Bosch Form FAQs
What form are De Graafschap and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 28W 11D 25L in their last 64 games (1.48 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 14W 13D 37L in their last 64 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Den Bosch away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.71 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.55 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between De Graafschap and Den Bosch, the earliest from February 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 27 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won Den Bosch 0-4 De Graafschap on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 4W 2D 0L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
De Graafschap
3
Draws
1
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ De Graafschap vs Den Bosch H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Den Bosch?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, De Graafschap have won 6, Den Bosch have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Den Bosch last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 September 2026: De Graafschap 1-0 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Den Bosch?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 45%, Den Bosch 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (De Graafschap) and 61% (Den Bosch).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 26% of games; Den Bosch in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ De Graafschap vs Den Bosch Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in De Graafschap and Den Bosch matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 42% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are De Graafschap and Den Bosch matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of De Graafschap's recent games and 61% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and Den Bosch matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 71% of Den Bosch's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Den Bosch 2-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.76 xG and Den Bosch 0.81 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Den Bosch landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.04 / defence 0.90 against Den Bosch attack 0.68 / defence 1.02, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 58% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 16%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 59%, Den Bosch 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Den Bosch's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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