Roda 2-2 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs ADO Den Haag encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Roda and ADO Den Haag meet at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Roda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Roda's home record at Parkstad Limburg Stadion: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
ADO Den Haag have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
ADO Den Haag's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Roda lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 3–0 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Roda — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
ADO Den Haag — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 56% and ADO Den Haag 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 50% | ADO Den Haag 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.70 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.155 / defence 0.739 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.123 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.366. Roda's defence rating of 0.739 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Roda games / 66 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 49% | Draw 28% | ADO Den Haag 24%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | ADO Den Haag 4.17. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | ADO Den Haag 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 49% | Draw 28% | ADO Den Haag 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Roda 1.70 / ADO Den Haag 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.155 / def 0.739 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.123 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Roda (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.13
ADO Den Haag xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Roda vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 March 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Roda 2 - 2 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Roda vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Roda vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 49% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Roda and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and ADO Den Haag?
Record (5 meetings): Roda 3W | Draws 1 | ADO Den Haag 1W.
What form are Roda and ADO Den Haag in?
Roda (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Roda's attack at 1.16x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ADO Den Haag's attack (1.12x) against Roda's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
49%
2.05
28%
3.64
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Roda xG
Total xG
2.83
1.13
ADO Den Haag xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
4%
23.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Roda and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Roda and 1.13 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Roda have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 27W 16D 23L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
ADO Den Haag's form line: 28W 20D 18L from 66 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Roda against 1.58 for ADO Den Haag. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.82 PPG from 33 outings (18W 6D 9L).
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 14W 10D 9L from 33 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Roda are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.65 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag in 67%.
Last 66 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 27W 16D 23L in their last 66 games (1.47 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 28W 20D 18L in their last 66 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or ADO Den Haag away?
Roda's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.82 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
ADO Den Haag have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 5-0 on 21 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against ADO Den Haag — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Roda
3
Draws
4
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 3, ADO Den Haag have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Roda and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Roda 0-3 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between Roda and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 61%, ADO Den Haag 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Roda) and 58% (ADO Den Haag). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Roda's games and 64% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Roda's matches and 58% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Roda and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and ADO Den Haag share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 29, as Roda and ADO Den Haag drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.70 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.13 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. ADO Den Haag outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.16 / defence 0.74 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.12 / defence 0.91, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 49% | Draw 28% | ADO Den Haag 24%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 50%, ADO Den Haag 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.47 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.