Venezia 2-2 Modena – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Venezia at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Venezia face Modena.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Pierluigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus Modena in Serie B (matchday 25). Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Venezia have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Venezia at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Venezia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Modena (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Modena have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Venezia, 1.00 for Modena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Venezia's last 10 home games and Modena's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Venezia's games and 70% of Modena's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Venezia, 0 for Modena and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Venezia 3–1 Modena — a Venezia win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 61% versus Modena 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 56% | Modena 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 2.17 xG and Modena 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.311 / defence 1.157 | Modena attack 0.993 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.217. Venezia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.311 — their 2.17 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Modena's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Venezia's projected output up. Data: built from Venezia's last 62 games and Modena's last 62.

Result probabilities: Venezia 54% | Draw 22% | Modena 24%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.84 | Draw 4.51 | Modena 4.24. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (2.17 / 1.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.56 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Venezia's last 10 home games and Modena's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Venezia 80% (last 10 home games) | Modena 70% (last 10 away games).

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