Parma 3-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Parma and Pisa meet at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Parma (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Parma have posted 5W 5D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pisa's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Pisa have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Parma. A 0.80 PPG lead over Pisa (2.10 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Parma's last 10 home games and Pisa's last 10 away games) — Parma have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Pisa in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Parma, 1 for Pisa and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2023, ended Parma 2–1 Pisa — a Parma win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Parma — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Pisa — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 48% versus Pisa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 45% | Pisa 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.47 xG and Pisa 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.174 / defence 0.901 | Pisa attack 0.961 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.198. Data: built from Parma's last 62 games and Pisa's last 62.
Result probabilities: Parma 46% | Draw 29% | Pisa 25%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.18 | Draw 3.47 | Pisa 3.94. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Parma 80% (last 10 home games) | Pisa 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 46% | Draw 29% | Pisa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Parma 1.47 / Pisa 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.174 / def 0.901 | Pisa attack 0.961 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Parma (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Pisa xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Parma vs Pisa FAQs
What time does Parma vs Pisa kick off?
Parma vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Pisa?
Parma 3 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Parma vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Pisa part of?
Parma vs Pisa is a Serie B fixture (matchday 25) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 46% chance of winning, Pisa a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Parma and Pisa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Parma vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Parma's attack rating (1.17) and Pisa's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.96x) against Parma's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Parma's last 62 games and Pisa's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.47
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Parma xG
Total xG
2.51
1.04
Pisa xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
6%
17.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Parma vs Pisa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Parma and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Parma and 1.04 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Parma's recent record stands at 32W 15D 15L from 62 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 18W 23D 21L across 62 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pisa heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Parma have managed 18W 7D 6L from their last 31 home games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 8W 13D 10L across their last 31 away games, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Parma are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.23 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Parma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Pisa
Blended
Parma (Home) vs Pisa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Parma
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Parma vs Pisa Form FAQs
What form are Parma and Pisa in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 32W 15D 15L in their last 62 games (1.79 PPG), while Pisa have gone 18W 23D 21L in their last 62 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Pisa away?
Parma's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.97 PPG; Pisa away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Parma or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Pisa in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Parma and Pisa, the earliest from September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Serie B, Serie A. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Parma have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Parma
3
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Parma vs Pisa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Pisa?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Parma have won 4, Pisa have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Pisa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Parma 1-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Pisa?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 48%, Pisa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Parma) and 36% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Pisa in 36%; Pisa in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Parma vs Pisa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Parma and Pisa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Parma's recent matches and 52% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Parma and Pisa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Parma's recent games and 36% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Pisa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Parma's recent matches and 52% of Pisa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Pisa 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Pisa 3-2 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.47 xG and Pisa 1.04 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.17 / defence 0.90 against Pisa attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 46% | Draw 29% | Pisa 25%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 45%, Pisa 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Parma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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